Perubahan Kepercayaan Analis: MCO Menargetkan Keuntungan Dua Digit ke Depan

Stifel’s bullish stance on Moody’s signals growing market confidence in the rating agency’s prospects. On January 5, 2026, the investment bank upgraded its position from a Hold rating to Buy, marking a meaningful shift in near-term outlook. This move follows months of steady institutional accumulation and improving sentiment signals across the market.

The Valuation Case Emerging

The consensus price target tells a compelling story for MCO shareholders. As of December 21, 2025, analysts surveyed by major platforms estimate fair value at $555.07 per share, suggesting roughly 11.24% upside from the most recent close of $498.98. Price estimates span a range from $464.60 on the conservative end to $651.00 for the more optimistic scenarios. These projections reflect divergent views on Moody’s ability to navigate revenue headwinds, with forecasts showing a 9.29% projected decline in annual revenue to 6,804 million dollars. Despite top-line pressure, non-GAAP earnings per share are modeled at 15.21, indicating underlying operational resilience.

Institutional Positioning Reflects Steady Interest

The fund community’s behavior offers another lens into MCO’s appeal. Currently, 2,167 funds and institutions maintain positions in the stock, though this represents a net decrease of 67 owners—or 3.00%—since the prior quarter. The average institutional portfolio allocation to MCO stands at 0.42%, up 7.05% period-over-period, suggesting selective but intentional increases among those who remain involved. Total institutional share count declined modestly by 2.11% to 175.86 juta saham over the three-month stretch.

Options markets amplify the bullish narrative. The put-to-call ratio of 0.48 signals investor preference for upside bets over downside protection, a textbook indicator of optimistic positioning ahead.

Megaholder Dynamics and Strategic Ownership

Large shareholders continue to shape MCO’s narrative. Berkshire Hathaway maintains its substantial 13.83% stake—equivalent to 24.67 juta saham—with no movement during the quarter. TCI Fund Management holds the second-largest disclosed position at 7.46% (13.31 juta saham), with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.46% in share count despite reducing its relative portfolio weight by 8.17%. This behavior suggests tactical rebalancing rather than conviction shifts.

Index trackers remain structural buyers. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund holds 4.92 juta saham (2.76% kepemilikan), naik 1.72% dari periode sebelumnya, sementara Vanguard 500 Index Fund membawa 4.39 juta saham (2.46%), juga meningkat 2.06%. Kedua entitas mengurangi eksposur proporsional mereka sekitar 2.2-2.3%, sesuai mekanisme rebalancing pasif.

Geode Capital Management melengkapi pemegang utama dengan 3.92 juta saham yang mewakili 2.20% kepemilikan, naik 0.86% secara berurutan tetapi dengan pengurangan signifikan sebesar 53.66% dalam bobot alokasi portofolio—pergeseran paling dramatis di antara peserta utama.

The Broader Takeaway

MCO berada di titik balik di mana sentimen analis membaik sementara perilaku institusional tetap terukur tetapi mendukung. Target upside 11% dan peningkatan Stifel memberikan katalis jangka pendek, meskipun tantangan pendapatan perlu dipantau. Bagi peneliti ekuitas yang mengikuti nama-nama layanan keuangan, posisi ganda Moody’s—dukungan valuasi dipadukan dengan hambatan operasional—layak mendapatkan perhatian terus-menerus.