Mengapa Langkah Terbaru Jerome Powell Menunjukkan Lebih Banyak Pemotongan Suku Bunga di Depan—Dan Apa Artinya Itu untuk Portofolio Anda

The Fed Faces a Tough Balancing Act

The Federal Reserve operates with a dual mandate: maintaining price stability (keeping annual inflation around 2%) while fostering full employment. Throughout 2025, these two goals have been pulling in opposite directions.

Inflation remained stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target for the entire year, with November’s reading hitting 2.7%. Normally, such elevated prices would demand tighter monetary policy, not looser. Yet the labor market painted a different picture—one that forced Chairman Jerome Powell’s hand.

The Jobs Crisis That Changed Everything

The employment cracks started appearing in July, when the economy added just 73,000 jobs—far below the expected 110,000. Worse, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised May and June figures downward by 258,000 combined positions, revealing the economy was weaker than initially reported.

By November, the unemployment rate had climbed to 4.6%, the highest in over four years. But here’s where Jerome Powell’s December speech became critical: he suggested official numbers might be overstating job growth by roughly 60,000 positions monthly due to data collection issues. His alarming assessment? The economy could actually be losing 20,000 jobs per month currently.

This deteriorating employment picture, despite persistent inflation, explains why the Fed felt compelled to act. December brought the third rate cut of 2025 and the sixth since September 2024.

The 2026 Rate Cut Forecast

Powell and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee remain concerned about labor market weakness. In December’s Summary of Economic Projections, most FOMC members signaled their expectation of at least one additional rate reduction in 2026.

Wall Street is betting even more aggressively. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool—which tracks Fed funds futures market activity—traders are pricing in two cuts for 2026: one anticipated in April and another in September.

What Lower Rates Mean for Stock Markets

Falling interest rates typically create a favorable environment for equity markets. Cheaper borrowing costs bolster corporate profit margins while freeing up capital for expansion and shareholder returns. The S&P 500’s near-record close in 2025 reflects this dynamic, powered partly by AI enthusiasm but also significantly by three Fed cuts.

However, there’s a critical caveat: if rate cuts fail to prevent a recession, stock market gains could evaporate quickly. Rising unemployment often precedes economic contractions, dan ketika resesi terjadi, pendapatan perusahaan menderita meskipun stimulus moneter diberikan. Sejarah memberikan contoh yang menyadarkan—keruntuhan dot-com, krisis keuangan 2008, dan pandemi COVID-19 semuanya menyaksikan saham anjlok bahkan saat Fed melakukan pemotongan suku bunga secara agresif.

Lingkungan saat ini tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda keruntuhan ekonomi yang katastrofik, tetapi investor harus memantau data ketenagakerjaan dengan cermat. Setiap deteriorasi lebih lanjut di pasar pekerjaan bisa menjadi peringatan awal resesi, yang berpotensi mengesampingkan dampak positif dari penurunan suku bunga.

Namun, bagi investor jangka panjang, sejarah S&P 500 menawarkan jaminan: setiap penurunan sebelumnya terbukti bersifat sementara, dan mereka yang bertahan akan mendapatkan imbal hasil.