Pasar saham 2026 menghadapi "krisis valuasi"? Data Federal Reserve telah memberikan sinyal

Federal Reserve’s Quiet Warning

Chairman Jerome Powell already sounded the alarm in September last year — “stock prices are already significantly overvalued based on multiple metrics.” Since then, several officials including Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook have voiced concerns, pointing out the current market faces “asset price correction risks.” This is not idle chatter, but an official warning from the central bank.

Currently, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 22.2 times, well above the 10-year average of 18.7 times. More notably, historically, whenever this index exceeds a 22x valuation, it has been followed by significant declines.

Three Repeated Historical Cases

Dot-com Bubble Era (2000-2002)
Forward P/E broke through 22x, and investors paid crazy prices for internet stocks. Ultimately, the S&P 500 fell 49% from its peak.

COVID-19 Pandemic Period (2021-2022)
Forward P/E again exceeded 22x, as the market underestimated the impacts of supply chain disruptions and soaring inflation. The index bottomed out after a 25% decline.

Post-Trump Re-election (2024-2025)
The third time the forward P/E broke 22x, investors ignored the deep impacts of tariff policies. The S&P 500 subsequently declined 19% from its high.

The Curse of Midterm Election Years

Data shows that the S&P 500 has performed poorly in the past 17 midterm election years — with an average gain of only 1% (excluding dividends), far below the long-term average of 9%. Especially in midterm elections when a new president takes office, the index has averaged a 7% decline.

The reason is simple: policy uncertainty shatters market confidence. The ruling party usually loses in midterm elections, causing investors to hold back, and capital flows become uncertain.

But turns of events often come quickly. Data indicates that the six months after midterm elections (November to April) tend to be the strongest period within a presidential term, with the S&P 500 averaging a 14% increase.

Outlook After 2025

Over the past three years, the S&P 500 has achieved double-digit growth (16% in 2025), and such a rally is hard to sustain. When high valuations meet the political uncertainty of midterm election years, 2026 could become a turning point.

However, the key point is: high valuations do not mean an immediate crash, but history shows they will eventually correct. Instead of predicting specific timing, it’s better to adjust investment mindset — be prepared for possible volatility.