The minutes of the Bank of Japan's closed-door meeting in October recently leaked unexpectedly, revealing a noteworthy shift. According to the minutes, the committee collectively confirmed that inflation expectations among residents and businesses have reached the key target of 2%. Even more cautionary is the statement in the minutes: "Must be highly alert to the risk of a broad-based rise in prices." The implications of this signal require careful interpretation.

During the meeting, there was a clear divergence within the Bank of Japan regarding the outlook. The hawkish members' view was relatively straightforward—inflationary pressures have already emerged, the 2% target is essentially achieved, and there is no need to wait further. The dovish members insisted that core inflation remains insufficiently stable and advocated for continued cautious observation. However, on one issue, the participants reached a consensus: yen depreciation poses the greatest risk. Several members publicly pointed out that if the yen continues to depreciate, import prices could spiral out of control, and inflation might overshoot significantly.

The most insightful point in the minutes came from a certain member: "Inflation is likely to reach the target by spring next year, but the precondition is that wages must keep pace." This statement points to a key variable—the outcome of Japan's wage negotiations in spring 2024 will largely determine whether the central bank will initiate a rate hike.

From the perspective of the crypto market, this chain of changes has several potential impacts:

Pertama, the yen's trend may face a turning point. If the long-term depreciation trend reverses, expectations of yen appreciation will intensify, changing the current arbitrage trading landscape. Kedua, the global liquidity environment is changing. As the last bastion of negative interest rates globally, Japan's policy adjustments will reduce the supply of "cheap money," affecting global financial markets. Ketiga, liquidity-driven factors in the crypto market are weakening. The previous bull market was directly related to large-scale global liquidity injections; now, with the liquidity turning point approaching, pressure is mounting on the valuation of risk assets.

For mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, BNB, and others, this macroeconomic shift requires re-evaluation. Liquidity tightening is usually accompanied by increased volatility and often signals a significant market environment shift. The current strategy should expand from purely technical analysis to tracking macro policy changes, which represents a higher-dimensional market understanding.