The Federal Reserve's rate cut this round has been implemented, although officials are very secretive about the expansion of the balance sheet, but the market is well aware. The next rhythm depends on the last window before Powell steps down in June—this period's policy signals may determine the short-term trend.

The so-called "regulatory bull market" has yet to show any signs of improvement. First, liquidity is indeed tight, and second, key policies are still in the brewing stage. Will the new management change the game rules after taking office? That's still a question mark, and we can only wait and see.

This bear market is fundamentally different from previous ones. The entry of large institutions and spot ETFs has changed the landscape—major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are supported by institutional funds, making a cliff-like crash unlikely to recur. But altcoins are not so lucky; lacking funding support, their fate is sealed.

Whether the altcoin season can reappear ultimately depends on whether the industry has real capabilities. Projects that only tell stories but do not solve practical problems may ultimately vanish into smoke. Conversely, only those coins that can be applied in real-world scenarios and meet actual needs have a chance to survive.

There is also an external variable worth paying attention to: policy orientation changes often amplify market expectations. These factors are constantly influencing investor confidence and capital flows.