The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points early in the morning, but BTC did not capitalize on the breakout. Instead, it staged a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" rally followed by a pullback. The core issue lies in the hawkish guidance for future rate cuts—market expectations suggest that the next easing window may be delayed until mid-next year. Short-term liquidity benefits have been front-loaded, making it difficult for news to generate sustained upward momentum.

From a technical perspective, the previous ascending triangle structure has not been broken, but the trend shows clear signs of weakness, with prices revisiting key support zones. Compared to the initial plan of entering below 90,000, current focus should be on the effectiveness of defending the core range of 88,000-89,000. This area is not only a previous high-density trading zone but also the last defensive line for bulls in the short term.

Operasi strategi:
Bagi posisi long yang sudah masuk, disarankan untuk segera take profit dan mengamankan keuntungan, agar terhindar dari risiko koreksi dalam volatilitas lemah; bagi yang belum masuk, tidak perlu terburu-buru masuk bottom, tunggu konfirmasi support di kisaran 88.000-89.000. Jika muncul sinyal stabil dengan volume yang menyusut, langsung saja lakukan pembukaan posisi long. Dari sudut pandang tren, meskipun tekanan jangka pendek meningkat, latar belakang makroekonomi yang longgar belum berubah. Masih ada potensi untuk rebound, kunci utamanya adalah kualitas pertahanan di level support.
#美联储降息预测