Mengenal Bull Run: Mengapa Pasar Kripto Meledak (Dan Cara Agar Tidak Rugi Besar)

If you’ve been in crypto for 5 minutes, you’ve heard the term “bull run.” But what actually happens under the hood? Let’s break it down without the hype.

The Anatomy: 4 Phases Everyone Gets Wrong

Most guides oversimplify this. Here’s what really goes down:

Phase 1: Accumulation (The Ghost Period) While 99% of retail sleeps, whales quietly stack. Volume is dead. Nobody talks about it on Twitter. This is when BTC might trade sideways for months—but smart money knows what’s coming.

Phase 2: Recovery (Early Signals) Prices tick up slowly. News starts trickling in. Early adopters feel smarter than they are. Leverage traders get liquidated trying to short. The trend is fragile here.

Phase 3: Euphoria (The Danger Zone) Everyone’s talking crypto at the gym. Your barista has Ethereum. Shitcoins 100x in days. FOMO hits different. This is where most people buy—right before the dump.

Phase 4: Distribution (Exit Strategy) Institutions and early whales sell into the frenzy. Volume spikes artificially high. New ATHs feel inevitable but fragile. Smart traders are already looking for exits.

The Red Flags Everyone Ignores

You’ll know a bull run is real when:

• Bitcoin and major alts pump 50%+ in weeks, not months
• Your feed floods with “get rich quick” stories
• Unknown Layer 2s and meme tokens lead the gains
• News cycles speed up (project launches every other day)
• On-chain metrics show retail pouring in, not whales accumulating

But here’s the thing—not all pumps are bull runs. 2024 showed us that price spikes without sustained adoption are just volatility.

What Actually Changes During a Bull Market

It’s not just hype. Real infrastructure developments happen:

• Trading volume explodes (more liquidity, tighter spreads)
• New users flood exchanges (but most FOMO at the top)
• Developer activity picks up (genuine building happens during bull runs)
• Regulation gets easier to navigate (governments get interested)
• Cross-chain bridges and scaling solutions see massive adoption

The Real Play (Not Financial Advice)

1. Build a thesis – Why does this project matter beyond price? What’s the use case?
2. Dollar-cost average – Don’t YOLO your life savings in one trade
3. Take profits – If your coin 10x, sell some. Seriously.
4. Diversify – Bitcoin, Ethereum, then selective alts
5. Study Phase 3 exits – The hardest part isn’t buying early; it’s knowing when to sell

The Uncomfortable Truth

Bull runs reward timing AND luck. You can do everything right and still lose money if you’re overleveraged or buy at local tops. Conversely, you can be reckless and 10x your money during extreme euphoria.

The 2017 bull run made millionaires out of people who bought literally any ERC-20. The 2021 bull run punished leverage traders ruthlessly despite massive market gains.

The next one? Watch on-chain metrics, not Twitter sentiment. Smart money moves first; FOMO follows.

What’s your take—are we early in a bull phase or just seeing dead cat bounces? Drop your analysis in the comments.