$BTC rose for 2 weeks, then returned to the starting point in 1 day—this is the norm for illiquid markets. The rebound isn't dead, but the breakout hasn't materialized. The market hasn't yet proven it can turn the area above 74,000 into support, which is the most typical manifestation of insufficient liquidity.​

Spot trading volumes on major exchanges in 2026 are approximately 25-30% lower compared to end-2025, while futures open interest has also clearly increased, meaning both market depth and leverage absorption are thinning out. In this thin order book environment, even relatively modest sell volumes hit prices faster because there aren't enough bids to absorb them and buy-side support isn't continuous enough. Although U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed continuous net inflows of approximately $767 million per week, which briefly provided upside fuel, BTC remains notably weaker than early-year levels this year and last week was still down approximately 19% from January's opening, so capital inflows haven't strengthened enough to approach the fundamental structure. What this market fears most isn't bad news itself, but "not enough depth in buy orders to digest the bad news"—so prices often show as "rising and falling in a day, charts reset to zero."

First, watch three things: First, spot ETFs can't maintain continuous net inflows; Second, trading volume and open interest can't rebound in sync; Third, after a price breakout, can it hold at higher levels horizontally, rather than surge forward then drop through the floor. If sustained spot volume remains low, order books stay thin, and rebounds still rely mainly on short squeezes, then BTC repeatedly showing "slow rises, fast falls" patterns will likely be the norm for such liquidity-constrained environments in 2026.