The rebound has lasted 39 days. If this rebound is targeting the decline from 97,900 to 60,000 (blue route), then we must find the rebound endpoint this week and turn downward. Otherwise, the possibility is that the rebound starting from 60,000 is targeting the entire decline from 126,000 to 60,000 (red route).



Based on our division of BTC structure, I've presented two possible routes in the chart:

Red route: The rebound starting from 60,000 overall forms a three-wave structure. This week's highest weekly candle point is the endpoint of the first rebound wave. After the first rebound completes, it pulls back to late March/early April, where an adjustment endpoint that doesn't break 60,000 appears, then initiates the next rebound wave continuing into mid-to-late April. After completing the entire rebound from 60,000, it will initiate a decline of the same magnitude as the 126,000-60,000 level.

Blue route: The rebound from 60,000 targets the 97,900-60,000 decline. After finding the rebound endpoint this week, it will continue downward. After completing the entire decline from 126,000, it will initiate a same-magnitude rebound. Under this route, the low point needs to be below 60,000. Currently, the time window for the decline is very limited. The longer this drags out, the lower the probability of this scenario becomes.

I've prepared trading strategies for both scenarios and am waiting for the market to give its answer before striking decisively.
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