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The oil market is now split into two worlds.
Futures are at 100–104 USD, firmly pressed down by policy and past experience
While actual spot prices are 140–150 USD.
Four years ago when Russia-Ukraine started, futures surged to 139 USD first, spot prices just followed suit, with a spread of only 10–13 USD. Because the supply wasn't actually cut off, just changed hands.
Now it's different. It's not "fear of disruption," it's actually disrupted.
In the long term, oil prices will definitely move downward, but the short-term dynamic game is actually quite interesting.