Bitcoin (BTC) is racing from record to record in 2025, while Ethereum (ETH) is still far from surpassing its ATH in 2021.
As ETH investors eagerly await a new ATH, an analyst has stated that Ethereum is preparing for a significant breakout.
The founder of Derive, Nick Forster, stated that Ethereum volatility may increase in April, and this could be a potential sign of an exit despite weak sentiment.
The analyst stated that Ethereum’s volatility is currently close to the lowest monthly levels, with the 7-day and 30-day terms at 59% and 45%, respectively.
Nick Forster stated that such low levels rarely persist and that volatility could begin to increase sharply in April.
Forster noted that although the volatility in Ethereum remains low, the ETH futures interest rate is now below the 5% yield of the U.S. Treasury, indicating weak short-term confidence.
However, the analyst noted that this often leads to price increases, as lower futures rates make leveraged positions more attractive and increase demand.
“When the futures interest rates are this low, leveraged positions become more attractive and demand increases. In the following weeks, we usually see sharp price increases.”
Forster stated that in the short term, investor sentiment could be in favor of Bitcoin, but the roadmap that includes the Etherealize and Pectra upgrades from the Ethereum Foundation could redirect institutional interest back to Ethereum in the second half of 2025.
The founder of Derive last predicted that the probability of Ethereum falling below $1,800 by the end of May is 30%, but the probability of it rising above $2,500 is also 19%.