I just noticed that Bitcoin rejected the $74,000 level after a pretty aggressive rally since the weekend. Thursday's candle was strong, but by Friday we're already seeing part of that move unravel. It’s now trading around $74.12K, but with some downward pressure.

What’s interesting is exactly where it stopped. It seems that the $74,000 coincided with two key technical barriers: the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day moving average. That’s no coincidence; that’s typically where rebounds in bear markets tend to halt. Technical analysts are saying this was more of a short squeeze (liquidation of short positions) than a genuine bullish conviction. Basically, the bears set their stops too close, and the automatic move was triggered.

Now, the established floor level is at $70,000. If it holds, the breakout is legitimate. If they lose it, then the $64,000 level is back in play. That’s what to watch in the coming sessions.

Regarding altcoins, the outlook is mixed. Ethereum rose to $2.33K this week, but Dogecoin is down -1.60% over 7 days. Solana is also under pressure, at -1.64%. BNB barely moves (+0.21%) and XRP remains weak (-1.73%).

What worries me is the macro context. The war in Iran, the stronger dollar, soaring oil... these are not conditions that typically support a crypto rally. Asian indices have fallen 6.4% since the conflict erupted. On Friday, there was some tentative relief, but the situation remains uncertain. The Defense Secretary said operations could last from three to eight weeks. That’s pure uncertainty.

My take: the rally was technical, not fundamental. Now we need to see if that $70,000 floor holds or if we drop back to $64,000. Everything will depend on how the geopolitical situation evolves.