#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Institution: Gold and Silver Both Signal a Bearish Outlook in March; Bull Market Restart May Require Another Six Months

According to the latest report from Heraeus, a globally renowned precious metals analysis agency, gold and silver both issued clear bearish signals in March, suggesting that the full restart of the precious metals bull market may still need to wait about six months. Despite news of sovereign nations selling and swap transactions in the market, central banks overall still maintain a net buy position in gold.

Federal Reserve Policy Dilemma: How to Balance Employment and Inflation
Heraeus analysts pointed out in the report that the Federal Reserve is currently facing a difficult choice regarding interest rate policy.

They wrote: “As prices continue to rise and employment growth stalls, the Fed must balance its dual mandates—supporting maximum employment and maintaining price stability.” Even if a ceasefire is achieved in the Middle East, inflation may remain high for some time, which means the Fed is more likely to keep interest rates unchanged or even consider further rate hikes.

In March, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 178k, significantly exceeding market expectations of 118k. However, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 11 months of employment data from the past 12 months starting from January 2025 have been revised downward, with an average revision of -51k.

Analysts added: “Since recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic at the end of 2024, U.S. non-farm employment has remained relatively stagnant. If rising costs lead to a slowdown in economic growth, this could negatively impact the job market, and a weakening employment situation might force the Fed to lower the federal funds rate to stimulate the economy and employment.”

Additionally, the probability of one or two rate cuts in 2026 has risen to 27.3% as of April 9, up sharply from 14.1% before the ceasefire announcement on April 7.

Ceasefire News Sparks Brief Market Rebound
Analysts said: “The initial market reaction to the ceasefire news was a rebound in previously sold assets, while previously rising assets (energy, dollar) pulled back. This news boosted precious metals prices, helping them close higher at the end of last week.”

Central Banks Continue Buying Gold, Net Increase of 27 Tons in February
The report shows that central banks continued their net gold purchases in February, with a total of 27 tons bought globally, higher than January’s 5 tons.

Among them, Poland’s National Bank increased its gold holdings by 20.2 tons in February, the largest monthly increase since February 2025 (29 tons). Uzbekistan added 7.8 tons, and Kazakhstan added 7.7 tons. Major sellers included Turkey (reducing by 8.1 tons) and Russia (reducing by 6.2 tons).

This trend continues the long-term pattern of central banks accumulating gold since the global financial crisis. In 2025, global central banks added a total of 863 tons of gold to their reserves.

Gold Technicals: Bearish Engulfing Pattern Formed in March
Heraeus analysts pointed out that last month, gold formed a typical bearish engulfing pattern on the monthly chart: the opening price in March was higher than the previous month, but the closing price was lower than the previous month’s close. This pattern aligns closely with the stagnation of the precious metals bull market at the end of January and the start of U.S.-Iran military actions.

Historically, a similar bearish engulfing pattern in April 2022 was followed by six consecutive months of falling gold prices, dropping from $2,000 per ounce to $1,600 per ounce.

Analysts believe that although similar price behavior has appeared, the current correction could be absorbed by the ongoing bull trend, as higher inflation and lower real interest rates will continue to support gold demand. However, if last week’s upward trend reverses, the next key support level may be near the March low, around $4,100 per ounce.

Silver Market: Physical Sales Decline, but First Quarter Still Stronger Than Last Year
Heraeus analysts noted that physical silver bar and coin sales in March saw a significant decline. Perth Mint’s March sales were 975,000 ounces, a sharp drop from nearly 2 million ounces in February. However, total silver sales in the first quarter exceeded 4.6 million ounces, showing a much stronger start to 2026 compared to 2025.

U.S. Mint’s Silver Eagle sales also slightly declined from 1.7 million ounces in February to 1.6 million ounces in March, with total sales over the first three months surpassing 8.1 million ounces, significantly higher than last year’s 5.3 million ounces.

On the technical side, the silver monthly chart also shows a similar bearish engulfing pattern as gold. Analysts said this indicates that silver prices may experience several months of consolidation or sideways weakness before the bull market restarts.

Summary
Although the ceasefire in the Middle East provides short-term optimism, the technical signals for gold and silver in March remain cautious. Heraeus analysts believe that the restart of the precious metals bull market could be delayed by another six months. During this period, central banks’ continued gold purchases will serve as an important support, while Fed interest rate decisions and global inflation trends will continue to dominate the medium-term direction of the precious metals market.