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If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a week, the prices of bulk commodities such as fertilizers and helium—key raw materials for food production and semiconductor manufacturing—may continue to rise beyond crude oil, further fueling the already accelerating inflation.
Internationally, commodities priced in US dollars will all increase in price because the dollar will strengthen. But a stronger dollar does not mean that inflation within the United States will decrease, as many goods closely related to daily life will see significant price hikes. The inflation rate will further rise.
From this perspective, next month's CPI is unlikely to look optimistic. May is also earnings report month, which is typically a bearish period. The combination of these two factors suggests that the big move in April will have already started early.
Therefore, I believe this month's monthly chart will show a large bearish candlestick.