I saw Bitcoin, which had fallen to around $69,000 earlier, suddenly jump to above $71,000. Ethereum and Solana are also rising at the same time. It seems that the sharp drop in crude oil is a major factor. With tensions with Iran remaining tense, the situation in which crude oil prices keep driving the broader market is likely to continue.

With February’s inflation data coming in as expected, the view that there will be no rate cuts at the March and April FOMC meetings has strengthened. However, how next month’s data turns out could change significantly due to geopolitical shocks. Since I’ve been caught off guard during the previous inflation cycle, how the FRB responds is likely to be the key.

XRP has sharply dropped from $1.36 to $1.33, showing that there is strong selling pressure—not just a liquidity shortage. After falling below $1.35, the resistance zone of $1.40–$1.41 has not been working. Trading volume is also down, and sellers remain in control. Falling below $1.33 would be a phase in which the risk of further downside increases.

In the end, it looks like this week’s market will continue to be influenced by movements in crude oil prices. To avoid getting blindsided by inflation concerns, it’s necessary to closely monitor what the Fed will do at its meeting next week.