Over the last 35 minutes monitoring market movements, I am impressed with Bitcoin's resilience in the face of the chaos happening around it. While global stocks are plummeting and volatility is rising, the largest cryptocurrency remains relatively steady around $73,500, accumulating a 9% gain this week. This is strange considering the macroeconomic scenario.

What catches attention is the brutal contrast. The global stock index fell 3.7% last week, the dollar recorded its best performance in a year, and oil surged above $100. Meanwhile, Ed Yardeni, a respected market strategist, just raised the probability of a U.S. market collapse to 35%. Previously, he had it at 20%. That’s a significant move.

But here’s the interesting thing about Bitcoin and crypto in general. Researchers at NYDIG conducted an analysis showing that only about a quarter of Bitcoin’s price movements are correlated with stocks. The other 75% are driven by crypto market dynamics. This explains why Bitcoin isn’t falling along with everything else, despite its reputation as a “risk asset.”

Altcoins are also holding up well. Ethereum rose to $2,310, Solana is at $83.69, XRP at $1.37, and even Dogecoin maintains $0.09. BNB fluctuated to $611.80. Nothing dramatic, nothing to suggest widespread panic in the crypto sector.

Historically, Bitcoin has not been immune to major drops when the market enters risk aversion mode. All major episodes since 2020 saw crypto falling along with stocks. The question is whether this dynamic still holds with the changing market structure and institutional adoption.

What makes me think: if there is indeed increasing risk of inflation and unemployment as Yardeni suggests, and if Bitcoin truly maintains only 25% correlation with stocks, then maybe we are seeing something different happening. Either Bitcoin is pricing in something the stock market hasn’t yet seen, or the composition of crypto investors has changed enough to decouple this correlation.

Anyway, it’s worth watching how Bitcoin behaves in the coming days. If there really is a market collapse with a 35% probability, we’ll see if Bitcoin finally proves its thesis as a hedge or if it falls along with everything else. The upcoming movements will be revealing.