Last week, quite an interesting event occurred in the cryptocurrency market, and it seems worth summarizing. It was a case where changes in Iran's political situation directly affected coin prices.

Early Sunday morning, immediately after Iranian state media reported the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Bitcoin surged to about $68,000. This nearly recovered all the losses from Saturday's geopolitical tensions. What's intriguing is the background of this movement. Market participants seem to interpret the leadership vacuum as increasing the possibility of a ceasefire rather than escalating existing tensions. As a result, funds quickly flowed into risk assets, and coin prices rose together.

In fact, the fluctuation between $64,000 and $68,000 was triggered by a single news event, occurring on a Sunday with low liquidity. Within a few hours, there was a market cap change of about $80 billion. This illustrates how extreme the situation was.

According to Iran's constitution, an interim committee composed of the president, the head of the judiciary, and judges of the Guardian Council will lead until a successor is appointed by the expert assembly, but there is no clear schedule. This uncertainty itself affected market sentiment. Meanwhile, the U.S. president called on the Iranian people to overthrow the regime, and military operations between Tehran and Israel are still ongoing. How the mourning period will influence this situation remains unclear.

Another market interpretation relates to energy supply routes. Iran is at the center of a region responsible for about one-third of global oil exports. If political instability worsens or supply disruptions occur, oil prices could spike, potentially pressuring global inflation expectations and negatively impacting risk assets like coins. Conversely, if traders believe that the succession mechanism will stabilize decision-making, risk assets could continue to be supported.

Interestingly, during the same period, Bhutan moved. It quietly sold about 70% of its approximately 13,000 Bitcoin holdings in October 2024, reducing its holdings to 3,954 BTC. The transaction was worth roughly $280.6 million. It appears Bhutan has delayed or halted Bitcoin mining based on hydroelectric power, and no major new inflows have been recorded for over a year. This can be interpreted as a signal of changes in institutional investors' positions, separate from coin price movements.

Ultimately, the relationship between geopolitical news and coin prices is complex. In the short term, markets react to signals of tension easing, but in the long term, variables such as energy supply, inflation, and global financial conditions come into play. It seems necessary to watch how oil prices and stock markets will move in the future.