📊 Wolf Analysis | 2026.04.07

Market

24h Price Change

BTC $68,180 (-2.03%) 🔴 Intraday high $70,352, low $68,180

ETH $2,095 (-2.60%) 🔴

SOL $79.65 (-3.95%) 🔴

BNB $599 (-1.43%) 🔴

1h Trend: BTC quickly pulled back from the $69,219 high to $68,180, and trading volume expanded from 860 BTC to 1,247 BTC, confirming a volume-backed selloff. ETH $2,130 → $2,095. SOL crashed from $80.36 to $79.65. BNB fell from $602.95 to $599. The 1-hour trend shows a structure of “failed breakout → rapid, volume-driven selloff,” with bears clearly dominating today.

15m Trend: After BTC saw a top at $69,219, it quickly pulled back; the latest 15-minute quote is $68,180. ETH moved from $2,129 down in sync to $2,095. SOL plunged from $80.47 to $79.65. BNB dropped from $606 to $599. Overall, it shows an accelerated downtrend, and the latest quote has already fallen below the support of the most recent 3 consecutive 15-minute candles.

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Market Drivers

① Iran’s Kharg Island hit multiple times; reports of civilian casualties

Mehr News confirms that Iran’s Kharg Island has been hit multiple times. CBS reports: US-Israel joint strikes killed 18 civilians in Alborz Province (including 2 young children). Iranian civilians formed human chains around critical infrastructure near nuclear power plants. The escalation signals a clear increase in geopolitical risk premium, with it rebounding quickly.

② Trump says the talks are “sincere,” but CBS says it’s the “critical period”

CBS reports: Trump said “this is the critical period,” but at the same time said that Iran is “negotiating in good faith.” Trump’s two-sided statements once again dashed the market’s expectations for de-escalation in geopolitics. If the Strait of Hormuz is affected, global maritime oil transit of 30% could be directly threatened.

③ OPEC+ to increase production by 100K barrels/day in May; upside momentum in oil prices is partly limited

Interfax: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 100,000 barrels/day in May versus April, and includes a new compensation mechanism. The production increase is limited, but the signal is clear—oil-producing countries choose to maintain supply amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, so the pattern of oil prices being “easy to rise and hard to fall” continues.

④ Barrons: The stock market has “immunity” to Iran rhetoric; Hormuz may be different

Barrons analysis: The current stock market has basically developed immunity to Trump’s Iran rhetoric, but the actual dynamics of the Strait of Hormuz could create completely different market impacts. Institutions have started hedging against tail scenarios involving Hormuz risk.

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⚠️ Risk Warning

• Geopolitical strikes have caused civilian casualties, and the probability of Iran’s retaliation has risen significantly

• BTC $68,000 is key support; if $67,500 breaks, then look for $66,000

• The SOL $79-$80 support range is under test; if it breaks, look for $76-$78

• 1h trading volume continues to expand; downside momentum is still being released

• Position management comes first—reduce trades taken against the trend