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#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 April 7 Geopolitical, Commodities, and Precious Metals Summary
1. First, let's look at crude oil. Yesterday, crude oil continued to "slightly rise," with WTI crude reaching 113.37. However, I want to remind everyone to pay attention to the fact that the spot premium (backwardation, discount structure) for crude oil has reached an extreme level, which usually indicates that at least a short-term top has appeared.
How to understand this? Under normal circumstances, the ratio of near-month to far-month prices for crude oil: approximately 1.0
Currently approximately 1.4–1.5 (extreme level). The "red line" in history is around 1.2. Once it breaks through and rises significantly, it often corresponds to a top in oil prices, and the current level has already clearly exceeded historical thresholds.
In other words, from a technical perspective, the short-term top in oil prices may have already appeared.
Let's look at another data point: WTI's RSI has already reached 80. I want to remind everyone that: the market is not fundamentally afraid of high oil prices, nor of low oil prices. But the market is only afraid of one thing: the unpredictability of oil prices.
Looking back to 2007, a clear pattern emerges: over the past 18 years, there have been 5 instances where the oil RSI entered overbought territory (>70), and after each, the S&P 500 quickly experienced a correction:
2008 → down 57%
2011 → down 20%
2014 → initially rose slightly, then fell 14%, and remained in a long-term sideways trend
2018 → down 20%, followed by further decline in 2020
2022 → down 26%
Currently, crude oil prices are fluctuating rapidly between $98 and $113, with daily volatility reaching up to 10%, and such volatility is a source of systemic uncertainty.
✔ Therefore, whether Iran's situation has ended is not the key point. The market's recovery condition is: oil prices stop fluctuating wildly and re-enter a stable range. This is crucial. It is also an important data point we need to continue monitoring.
2. Last night, the US market showed obvious risk-averse sentiment: all three major US stock indices rose, but the best-performing sectors were Consumer Services (1.47%), Textiles & Apparel (+1.41%), Defense & Military (1.39%), and Durable Goods Consumption (1.31%). These are typical "defensive sectors." Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell into the 99 range, and US Treasury yields rose slightly to 4.337%. Tonight at 8 PM (latest change by Trump to midnight Eastern Time), is "Power Plant and Bridge Day," and also the day when Trump's final ultimatum is expected to take effect. The mild market asset movements indicate that market expectations for Trump's "TACO" are higher.
✔ I want to remind everyone that things will not go so "smoothly." While writing this supplement, I just saw media reports about Iran's "10-point plan" in response to the US "Fifteen-Point Peace Plan."
Iran's ten-point plan includes:
1. Guarantee that Iran will no longer be attacked.
2. End the war permanently, not just a ceasefire.
3. Israel stops airstrikes against Lebanon.
4. Lift all US sanctions on Iran.
5. Cease all regional conflicts targeting Iran's allies.
6. As part of the exchange, Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz.
7. Iran will impose a $2 million toll for each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
8. Iran will split these fees with Oman.
9. Iran will establish safety passage rules for the Strait of Hormuz.
10. Iran will use the funds from the construction of the Strait of Hormuz for reconstruction, not for compensation. This essentially means that the US and Israel must recognize Iran as a "victorious country." Within 24 hours, it is unlikely that both sides will reach a reconciliation agreement or even form some kind of "consensus." Therefore, the most intense conflict could erupt within the next 24 hours. All asset prices may face a severe "shock." In other words, today, regardless of what assets you trade, you must remain cautious. Before major events, do not bet—this is a fundamental principle.
1. First, let's look at crude oil. Yesterday, crude oil continued to "slightly rise," with WTI crude reaching 113.37. However, I want to remind everyone to pay attention to the fact that the spot premium (backwardation, discount structure) for crude oil has reached an extreme level, which usually indicates that at least a short-term top has appeared.
How to understand this? When the near-month price ÷ the far-month price is normal: approximately 1.0
Currently approximately 1.4–1.5 (extreme level). Historically, the "red line" is around 1.2. Once it breaks through and rises significantly, it often corresponds to a top in oil prices, and the current level has already clearly exceeded historical thresholds.
In other words, from a technical perspective, the short-term top in oil prices may have already appeared.
Let's look at another data point: WTI's RSI has already reached 80. I want to remind everyone that: the market essentially is not afraid of high oil prices, nor of low oil prices. But the market is only afraid of one thing: the unpredictability of oil prices.
Looking back to 2007, a clear pattern emerges: over the past 18 years, there have been 5 instances where the oil RSI entered overbought territory (>70), and after each, the S&P 500 quickly experienced a correction:
2008 → down 57%
2011 → down 20%
2014 → initially rose slightly, then fell 14%, and remained sideways for a long time
2018 → down 20%, followed by further decline in 2020
2022 → down 26%
Currently, crude oil prices are fluctuating rapidly between $98 and $113, with daily swings reaching up to 10%, and such volatility is a source of systemic uncertainty.
✔ Therefore, whether Iran's situation has ended is not the key point. The market's recovery condition is: oil prices stop fluctuating wildly and re-enter a stable range. This is crucial. It is also an important data point we need to continuously monitor in the future.
2. Last night, the US markets showed clear risk-averse sentiment: all three major US stock indices rose, but the best-performing sectors were Consumer Services (1.47%), Textiles & Apparel (+1.41%), Defense & Military (+1.39%), and Durable Goods Consumption (1.31%). These are typical "defensive sectors." Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell into the 99 range, and US Treasury yields rose slightly to 4.337%. Tonight at 8 PM (which has been shifted to midnight Eastern Time by Trump), is "Power Plant and Bridge Day," and also the day when Trump's final ultimatum is expected to take effect. The mild market asset movements indicate that market expectations for Trump's "TACO" are higher.
✔ I want to remind everyone that things are unlikely to go so "smoothly." While writing this supplement, I just saw media reports about Iran's "10-point plan" in response to the US's "Fifteen-Point Peace Plan."
Iran's 10-point plan includes:
1. Guarantee that Iran will no longer be attacked.
2. Permanently end the war, not just a ceasefire.
3. Israel stops airstrikes on Lebanon.
4. Lift all US sanctions on Iran.
5. Cease all regional conflicts targeting Iran's allies.
6. As part of the exchange, Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz.
7. Iran will impose a $2 million toll for each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
8. Iran will split these fees with Oman.
9. Iran will establish safety regulations for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
10. Iran will use the construction costs of the Strait of Hormuz for reconstruction, not for compensation. This essentially means the US and Israel would have to recognize Iran as a "victorious country." Within 24 hours, it is highly unlikely that both sides will reach a reconciliation agreement or even form some kind of "consensus." Therefore, the most intense conflict could erupt within the next 24 hours. All asset prices may face a severe "shock." In other words, today, regardless of what assets you trade, you must remain cautious. Avoid making big bets before major events; this is a fundamental principle.