Opinion: Multiple practical obstacles hinder the US-Iran temporary ceasefire

Golden Finance reports that on April 6, Li Zixin, an assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said that based on the current situation, it is not impossible for the U.S. and Iran to reach a temporary ceasefire, but it is indeed fraught with difficulties. Even if such a ceasefire is reached, it is more likely to be a stopgap measure rather than a reliable path toward a permanent ceasefire. First, the core demands of both sides are actually hard to reconcile. Iran views control of the Strait of Hormuz and a stockpile of highly concentrated uranium enriched to 60%, as well as the associated abundance, as the key strategic bargaining chips in negotiations, and it has already made clear that it will not give up these fundamental interests for the sake of a short-term ceasefire. Meanwhile, the United States requires Iran to reopen the strait and handle nuclear materials, which in substance amounts to asking Iran to make unilateral concessions, and to set aside conditions related to Iran’s core interests in exchange for short-term actions—this crosses Iran’s sovereignty and security bottom line. Second, the trust foundation for negotiations is very weak. Although Iran acknowledges that relevant information was exchanged with the United States through friendly countries, it denies conducting direct talks. At the same time, U.S. President Trump is sending negotiation signals while also continuing to issue military strike “ultimatums.” This model of fighting while talking is more akin to a strategy of extreme pressure and testing how much room the other side will concede, rather than a genuine effort to seek reconciliation. (Gin Ten)