Market Strategy Tips (April 3 — April 4, Yesterday to Today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (April 3 — April 4), the market is in a phase of "strong pre-NFP pricing + hawkish Fed expectations reinforced twice + Middle East geopolitical conflicts recurring," with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Gold experienced a sharp decline and triggered technical correction around the key support zone of $4,550–$4,600, showing a narrow consolidation and weak tug-of-war pattern between bulls and bears. The crypto market, after breaching the 66,000 level and dropping to a new low of 64,000, has seen a weak rebound driven by oversold conditions, but overall remains a bearish, high-volatility environment dominated by bears.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic has shifted to a one-way suppression trend of "long-term high interest rates confirmed again + strong pre-NFP expectations + marginal warming of geopolitical stagflation worries." Market expectations for rate cuts within the year have been completely frozen. Several key Fed officials continue to signal hawkish stance: Governor Waller explicitly stated that "inflation is not falling as quickly as expected, there is no need to rush to cut rates this year, and a rate hike could even be restarted if necessary"; voting member Barkin said, "Labor market resilience exceeds expectations, inflation remains sticky, and rates need to stay high longer." The CME FedWatch tool shows nearly 100% probability of rates remaining unchanged in April and June, with the probability of a rate cut in September falling below 30%. The market mainly expects only one or zero rate cuts for the entire year. The US dollar index remains above 106.5, hitting a six-month high, while the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.45%, hitting an 8-month high, with real interest rates continuing to rise, exerting medium- to long-term pressure on gold, cryptocurrencies, and other non-yield risk assets. The Middle East geopolitical tensions have intensified again, with Israel continuing airstrikes on Iranian border military targets, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard vowing "retaliation