#创作者冲榜 #四月行情预测

Did the US and Iran decide not to fight after waking up? APAC stocks, US stocks, gold, and crypto markets all surged simultaneously. So, is this a true reversal or just a "April Fools' joke" played by the financial markets? Looking ahead to April's market, I remain cautiously bearish.

👉 First of all, the key factor influencing the market remains the US-Iran war. Whether it will end in April is crucial for all major financial markets. At present, I believe the news is still uncertain, and it’s unlikely that the US and Iran will achieve a complete ceasefire in April.

On the US side, the Trump administration is definitely dissatisfied with the progress of the war. They may have initially hoped to replicate Venezuela-style victories in Iran—targeted elimination of core leaders plus supporting pro-American forces to change the regime. But so far, it’s clear that this has failed. The war has reached a stalemate, rising oil prices have sharply increased inflationary pressures in the US, and the risk of stagflation has further escalated. Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to historic lows. With midterm elections approaching in the second half of the year, the White House will likely want to end the conflict quickly to avoid a prolonged war pattern like the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Iran, as the invaded party, also wants to negotiate, but whether President Pahlevi can represent the will of Iran’s ruling factions and religious authorities remains uncertain.

Another suspenseful point is whether the US will conduct a ground attack before negotiations. After all, Marine Corps and amphibious assault ships have already arrived in the Middle East. They can’t be just there for a sightseeing tour, right? So, it’s unlikely that the US and Iran will fully cease fire in April.

👉 Since the news is uncertain, let’s return to technical analysis. Currently, the market is just a rebound within a bear market, not a reversal. The bear market still exists, so it’s correct to short at high points anytime. Bitcoin’s rebound to over 69,000, as seen on the weekly chart, has already reached a strong resistance level, making it a good shorting opportunity. Moreover, the weekly chart shows a five-wave downward structure, and it’s highly likely that the final wave of decline has already begun. Therefore, I am bearish on April’s market, and around 69,000 is an excellent point to short.

👉 Lastly, let’s talk about sectors worth positioning this month. I am optimistic about oil and AI narrative tokens. Oil needs no explanation—until the US and Iran achieve a real ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz’s navigation remains uncertain, giving oil prices the basis to continue rising. As for AI narrative tokens, they could be a hot topic throughout the year. For example, last month’s eye-catching SIREN token combines MEME and AI concepts. In the future, tokens combining AI + MEME, AI chain + gaming, or other AI-related concepts will become increasingly popular. The chances of a “dog coin” like this emerging will also greatly increase.

Finally, I want to ask everyone: what do you think about April’s market? Feel free to leave comments and discuss. Wishing everyone prosperity every day! $BTC $ETH $SIREN