#金银同步走强 Sudden Breakout in the Early Hours! Gold surges to $4,640, Silver soars 6%, Three Major Positive Factors Ignite the Precious Metals Market

In the early hours of April 1st, the international precious metals market experienced a significant rally, with gold prices skyrocketing to $4,640 per ounce, and silver jumping 6%, instantly igniting market enthusiasm. Behind this rally are the concentrated release of three major positive factors, combined with the dual catalysts of geopolitical tensions and US economic data, once again highlighting the strong momentum of the precious metals market. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil fell 6%, and the US dollar index briefly dropped below 100, prompting a new round of global asset revaluation, with gold’s allocation value once again becoming a market focus.

The recent surge in gold and silver was not driven by a single factor but resulted from the resonance of three core positives: geopolitical tensions, US economic fundamentals, and institutional heavy assessments, each precisely hitting the core driving logic of the precious metals market.

First Positive: Marginal easing of geopolitical risk expectations, market funds reallocate into precious metals.
In the early hours, the Iranian president expressed willingness to end the war under certain conditions, signaling a potential easing of the ongoing Middle East geopolitical risks. While risk aversion sentiment appears to have cooled somewhat, market funds have made differentiated choices: crude oil plummeted 6% due to the retreat of geopolitical premiums, while gold and silver, with their “hedging + asset allocation” dual attributes, have become safe havens. It’s worth noting that the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, leaving some ambiguity, which provides support for gold’s future trend and is an important precondition for price appreciation.

Second Positive: Weak US economic data fuels expectations of rate cuts.
Latest data shows US job openings in February dropped sharply from 7.24 million to 6.88 million, with hiring slowing significantly. This signals a cooling US labor market and increasing economic pressure. As a “barometer” of the US economy, a weakening employment market further reinforces market expectations for monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve—specifically, the anticipation of rate cuts, which is a key driver for gold’s rise. It’s important to note that as a non-yielding asset, rate cuts greatly reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, and a weakening dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more attractive. This is also a major reason why the US dollar index briefly fell below 100.

Third Positive: Institutional heavy assessments reinforce bullish gold outlook.
Goldman Sachs explicitly maintained its bullish gold market outlook in its latest report, stating that by the end of 2026, gold prices could reach $5,400 per ounce. Central bank gold purchases and expectations of rate cuts will be the two main pillars supporting higher gold prices. This assessment is not unfounded; globally, central bank gold buying has persisted for over a decade. In 2025, global central bank net gold purchases remain at historically high levels, with 95% of surveyed central banks indicating they will continue to increase gold holdings over the next 12 months. This structural demand has built a solid long-term foundation for gold prices. Meanwhile, the Fed’s rate cut expectations provide short-term catalysts for price increases. The combination of long-term and short-term logic makes the bullish gold market more certain.

The concentrated release of these three positives has ushered in a strong rally in the precious metals market. However, market focus does not stop here. The next key data point may determine whether gold can sustain its strength—the US March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.

As a core indicator of US labor market strength, non-farm payrolls are always a crucial basis for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and a “market trend indicator” for precious metals. If the March NFP data shows weakness, it will further confirm the cooling trend of the US economy, boosting expectations for rate cuts, and likely allowing gold and silver to continue their current strong momentum or even challenge higher prices. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations may temporarily ease, and the precious metals market could see short-term adjustments.

It’s important to note that even if the non-farm data experiences short-term volatility, the long-term support logic for gold remains unchanged. On one hand, global central bank gold buying continues, and the de-dollarization process enhances gold’s monetary and strategic reserve attributes, making it an important choice for countries to optimize foreign exchange reserves. On the other hand, the US economic slowdown is not a short-term phenomenon; cooling employment and moderate inflation decline provide room for the Fed to cut rates. In the long run, the arrival of a rate cut cycle is only a matter of time.

For investors, this recent surge in gold and silver again highlights the importance of precious metals in asset allocation. However, markets always carry uncertainties, and short-term fluctuations are inevitable. Whether due to geopolitical volatility or economic data surprises, short-term market adjustments may occur. Therefore, maintaining a rational view of market fluctuations and focusing on long-term investment logic are especially important.