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Bitcoin's Bottom Price Prediction for This Bear Market—Around $40,000 Could Be a Good Buying Opportunity

Disclaimer: This article is not a bearish outlook. If the market coincidentally resembles this analysis, it’s purely a coincidence 😜😜😜
Recently, the ongoing escalation of the US-Iran conflict has crushed Bitcoin’s price, preventing it from rallying. From a technical perspective, a new downward trend may soon begin on the weekly chart. According to Elliott Wave Theory, we can see that we are likely in the fifth wave of decline, which is often referred to as “the last drop.” So the question is, if this decline is the “final dance” for the bears, where is the bottom?

🔍 Let’s first review the historical declines in previous bear markets:

2011-2012: Bitcoin experienced its first bear market, plummeting 94% from an early high of $34. At that time, it was just a niche toy among tech enthusiasts, with a market cap of only a few million dollars. Large sell-offs could trigger price crashes.

2013-2015: Driven by Chinese retail investors’ “buy buy buy” frenzy, Bitcoin first broke through $1,000, then crashed sharply, falling from a high of $1,163 to a low of $151, an 87% decline. Bitcoin started gaining mainstream attention, but the retail-dominated market remained fragile.

2017-2018: Under tightening Chinese regulations and high leverage liquidations, Bitcoin dropped from $20,000 to $3,200, an 84% decline. Despite the steep fall, institutional interest began to cautiously emerge.

2021-2022: After reaching a high of $60,000, Bitcoin retraced 77%, bottoming at $15,500. Institutional holdings, such as Grayscale, expanded significantly, and market resilience improved.

On average, each bear market’s maximum decline narrows by 5-7 percentage points. Using this pattern, let’s “predict the bottom” of this cycle:

(1) Optimistic Scenario: Decline narrows to 65%, bottom around $44,000

If institutional “buffer” effects exceed expectations, combined with factors like the Fed cutting rates early and favorable crypto policies from the Trump administration, the maximum decline could be limited to 65%. Calculating this, the bottom price would be approximately 126,000 × ( × (1 - 65%) = $44,100.
Supporting signals include: weekly inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs turning positive, total stablecoin lock-up surpassing $250 billion, and Bitcoin stabilizing for three consecutive weeks below $50,000. If these signals appear, investors can start building positions below $50,000, with increased allocations around $45,000.

(2) Neutral Scenario: Decline of 70%-72%, bottom around $35,000–$38,000

This aligns with historical patterns, following the trend of decreasing declines by 5-7 percentage points each cycle. At 70% decline, the bottom would be about $37,800; at 72%, about $35,280. This range coincides with the 200-week moving average support and is also a dense trading zone from late 2023 to early 2024, providing strong technical support.

Risks to watch include: US recession triggering a broad sell-off, AI bubble burst causing tech stocks to collapse, and delays in implementing Trump’s “strategic reserves” policy. If these risks materialize, Bitcoin could bottom in the $35,000–$38,000 range, making it a good zone for dollar-cost averaging.

(3) Extreme Scenario: Decline back to 75%, bottom around $31,500

In the event of a global liquidity crisis or major crypto institution defaults, the decline could reach the previous cycle’s 75% level, with a bottom around $31,500. However, this scenario is less likely, as current institutional holdings are above historical peaks, significantly boosting market resilience.
Signals for this extreme include: two consecutive weeks of large outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, stablecoin lock-up falling below $200 billion, and daily drops exceeding 15%. If these occur, investors should stay on the sidelines until panic subsides before considering entry.

📈 Now let’s look at the technical analysis:

The current market is experiencing a weekly five-wave decline pattern, starting from a break below $116,000. Wave A declined over 38,000 points, Wave C similarly around 38,000 points. Using the last wave’s decline, also around 38,000 points, and the rebound from Wave D’s high near 76,000, the bottom of this decline could be around 38,000, which aligns with the neutral scenario above. On the monthly chart, short-term support is near 55,760, with the lower monthly band around 55,200. A decline to this level might trigger a small rebound.

📢 Finally, let’s consider potential negative news:

1. Escalation of US-Iran conflict

The US-Iran war is intensifying, with a high likelihood of ground operations. Such a scenario would push oil prices higher, increasing global inflation expectations. The negative impact of the war could cloud the global economy, potentially leading to stagflation. Bitcoin might follow the 2022 pandemic crash, experiencing a sharp decline.

2. Fed rate cuts falling short of expectations

If the US-Iran conflict worsens or turns into a prolonged war, persistent inflation threats could slow the Fed’s rate cuts or even force it to hike rates again. This would be detrimental to cryptocurrencies.

3. Underdeveloped quantum resistance

Rapid advances in quantum computing pose a potential threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security. If quantum computers can crack elliptic curve encryption, Bitcoin’s security could be severely compromised, eroding trust and causing prices to plummet.

💰 Correct approach to bottom-fishing—reduce leverage at lows, buy boldly, sell cautiously

Finally, this is not a “bearish article.” The purpose of predicting the bottom is to facilitate better entry points. After all, who wouldn’t want to buy at the foot of the mountain and sell at the peak? But note that although we are in a bear market, the long-term cycle shows that Bitcoin always follows a “short bear, long bull” upward spiral. Looking into the future from the present, Bitcoin is relatively “cheap.” The so-called “guess the bottom” is just a technical and psychological game. For spot investors, a price around $40,000–$50,000 could be an excellent entry point. Your only task is to reduce leverage. Also, don’t sell now just to catch a better bottom, or you might end up missing out or hurting yourself. The best approach is “buy boldly at lows, sell cautiously.”