NFL Requests Prediction Markets to Restrict Certain Contracts as CFTC Signals Deference to Leagues

The National Football League sent letters to prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket on March 29, 2026, requesting they refrain from offering contracts tied to single-play events, officiating decisions, player injuries, and other categories the league deemed vulnerable to manipulation or objectionable.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig stated that the agency will afford significant deference to sports leagues when assessing which contracts are susceptible to manipulation, signaling a regulatory approach that treats sports-related prediction markets differently from traditional futures contracts.

NFL Identifies Contract Categories Vulnerable to Manipulation in Letters to Platforms

The NFL’s letters, obtained by ESPN and CNBC, outlined specific event contract categories that the league considers problematic. The league flagged markets tied to single-play events including whether a quarterback’s first pass is incomplete or if a kicker misses a field goal, contracts linked to draft picks and roster decisions, and nongame-related events such as broadcast mentions or celebrity attendance at games.

The league also raised objections to contracts tied to penalties and player injuries, stating that such markets could create incentives for manipulation. The letter characterized certain wagers as “inherently objectionable,” including those related to play injuries, fan safety, and play misconduct. NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller stated that sports prediction markets are not effectively regulated currently and that the league will continue engaging with the CFTC to establish guardrails protecting game integrity and consumers.

NFL Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel signed the letter, which noted that the league’s greatest priority is protecting the integrity of its games and the welfare of its players. The letter expressed encouragement that the CFTC recognizes sports-related prediction markets should be regulated differently than other futures contracts and offered to meet with platforms to discuss views on prohibited bettors, information sharing with leagues, and responsible betting measures.

CFTC Chairman Selig Says Agency Will Defer to Leagues on Manipulation Risks

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated in an interview accompanying the NFL’s announcement that the agency will afford significant deference to sports leagues when evaluating which contracts are vulnerable to manipulation. Selig noted that if a league communicates that a contract is readily susceptible to manipulation, the CFTC will evaluate the risks accordingly, emphasizing that leagues are well positioned to make such determinations.

The CFTC’s approach reflects ongoing regulatory development in the prediction market space. Lawmakers have introduced a bipartisan bill that would bar federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports-related contracts, while several states have pursued legal challenges against prediction market platforms. Selig’s comments suggest the agency will incorporate league perspectives into its regulatory framework rather than establishing uniform standards across all contract types.

The NFL has not publicly released the full contents of its letters, and it remains unclear whether Kalshi, Polymarket, or other platforms plan to adjust their offerings in response to the league’s requests. Both platforms have dominated the prediction market industry in recent months, with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour reporting that the platform saw more than $100 million in trading volume on a Super Bowl contract regarding halftime performer Bad Bunny’s first song.

Sports Leagues Adopt Divergent Approaches to Prediction Market Partnerships

The NFL’s cautious stance contrasts with other major sports leagues that have embraced prediction market platforms. Major League Baseball struck a partnership with Polymarket earlier in March 2026 and signed an agreement with the CFTC to share information and internally monitor risks. The NHL, MLB, and MLS have similarly adopted collaborative approaches, signing operators as partners rather than requesting contract restrictions.

The divergence in league approaches reflects differing assessments of prediction markets’ impact on game integrity and commercial opportunity. Sports betting incumbents including FanDuel and DraftKings have entered the predictions space as the industry has grown, with prediction market trading volume reaching $23.7 billion in March 2026 according to industry data.

The NFL’s letters to platforms coincided with broader regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets. Nevada gaming regulators sued Kalshi in February 2026, and the Arizona Attorney General filed lawsuits against Kalshi in March 2026. The CFTC’s stated deference to leagues on manipulation assessments may influence how federal and state regulators approach sports-related contracts in the evolving prediction market regulatory landscape.

FAQ

What types of prediction market contracts did the NFL ask platforms to restrict?

The NFL requested platforms refrain from offering contracts tied to single-play events such as quarterback pass completions or field goal outcomes, contracts linked to draft picks and roster decisions, markets tied to penalties and player injuries, and nongame-related events such as broadcast mentions or celebrity attendance. The league characterized these categories as easily manipulated, inherently objectionable, or knowable in advance.

How will the CFTC approach regulation of sports-related prediction markets?

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated the agency will afford significant deference to sports leagues when assessing which contracts are vulnerable to manipulation. The approach recognizes that sports-related prediction markets should be regulated differently than traditional futures contracts, with leagues well positioned to evaluate manipulation risks.

How do other sports leagues compare to the NFL on prediction market partnerships?

Major League Baseball struck a partnership with Polymarket in March 2026 and signed an information-sharing agreement with the CFTC. The NHL, MLB, and MLS have similarly embraced prediction markets as partners, while the NFL has taken a more cautious stance focused on restricting specific contract categories it views as problematic for game integrity.