I recently discovered something quite fascinating while digging into the history of financial markets. There is a market cycle analysis framework that dates back to the 19th century and, surprisingly, remains incredibly relevant today, even for cryptocurrencies. It’s the work of a guy named Samuel Benner, and honestly, his story deserves to be known far beyond academic circles.

So who was Samuel Benner really? He was an American farmer and entrepreneur from the 19th century who experienced the highs and lows of financial markets firsthand. Benner wasn’t a trained economist, but he went through prosperity and ruin multiple times. After losing big due to economic slowdowns and poor harvests, he wondered why these crises seemed to recur regularly. Instead of simply accepting these losses, Samuel Benner decided to investigate. He began analyzing market behavior patterns, studying panics, expansions, and recessions. And in 1875, he published his findings in a book titled “Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices.”

The cycle Samuel Benner identified is based on a simple yet powerful observation: markets follow predictable cyclical patterns. He discovered that certain years were systematically marked by economic peaks, while others saw crashes or panics. What’s interesting is that Benner identified these cycles as repeating approximately every 18 to 20 years.

The cycle is divided into three main categories. First, “A” years are panic years when economic crashes occur. Samuel Benner observed that years like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, and 2019 corresponded to these events. Next, “B” years are peak years, periods when markets reach their highest levels. This is the ideal time to sell and lock in gains. Benner identified 1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, 2007, and 2026 as peak years. Finally, “C” years are trough periods, when asset prices are low and it’s the best time to accumulate. Years like 1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, and 2012 correspond to these buying opportunities.

Initially, Samuel Benner’s research focused on agricultural commodities like iron, corn, and pork prices. But over time, others adapted his framework to broader financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and more recently, cryptocurrencies.

Why is this relevant today? Well, just look at the cryptocurrency market. Emotional volatility creates very pronounced boom-bust cycles. Bitcoin, for example, follows a four-year halving cycle that leads to periods of gains followed by corrections. The psychological models Samuel Benner observed over a century ago — collective euphoria followed by collective panic — are constantly repeating.

For crypto traders, the application is straightforward. During “B” years, when markets are at their peaks and valuations are inflated, it’s time to consider exiting positions and taking profits. During “C” years, when prices collapse and everyone panics, it’s the time to accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets at attractive prices. It’s a long-term strategic approach that works especially well for those who don’t want to trade every small fluctuation.

What I find really interesting about Samuel Benner is that his framework reminds us that markets are not purely random. They follow patterns rooted in human psychology and real economic cycles. Of course, no model is perfect, but when you combine Benner’s insights with an understanding of behavioral finance, you get a pretty solid roadmap for navigating markets.

Whether you’re trading stocks, commodities, or cryptocurrencies, Benner’s cycle offers a framework for thinking long-term and avoiding getting trapped by market emotional extremes. It’s a timeless reminder that cycles exist and that we can use them to our advantage.