#创作者冲榜 Will Bitcoin bottom out at $40,000?

This morning, Bitcoin experienced a direct surge and drop in early trading, with a low wick near $64,890! Long and short positions were simultaneously wiped out within 24 hours, with liquidation amounts easily surpassing $100 million. Leverage traders face another "thousand cuts."
This is not an isolated event—just two days ago, on March 28, the market was still struggling in a death cycle of "small rebound, big crash": a slight rebound of two or three thousand dollars briefly ignited hope, only to be hammered back to reality the next day by geopolitical shocks.
Since the super storm on October 2025, which saw a single-day liquidation of $19.04 billion and over 1.6 million traders wiped out instantly, March has continued the "death bottoming" pattern:
According to CoinGlass data, multiple days in March saw liquidations exceeding $500 million, with the total easily surpassing $10 billion for the month; Bitcoin’s peak of $126,000 was cut nearly in half by about 49%, with a total market cap evaporating over $2 trillion. The current price hovers between $65,000 and $67,000.
This is not random fluctuation but a systemic reshuffle under geopolitical storms and macro pressures.

March liquidation overview: cold data, brutal facts
March is not a "bear market," but a deepening phase of a prolonged bear market.
Price path: starting at $65-67k at the beginning of the month, briefly spiking to $73-74k, then falling back, with a wick at $64,890 on March 30—after multiple "false bottoms," the market entered a high-frequency oscillation "death valley."
Liquidation reality: leverage liquidations continued throughout the month, with a single-day peak exceeding $500 million, and over a million traders wiped out. Leverage acts like dominoes—one falls, and all fall.
Macro geopolitical evidence: escalation of Iran-Israel conflict, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, sudden increase in oil supply risks—Brent crude oil once surged past $107/barrel, geopolitical premiums soared 8-13%; Fed policy swings + residual effects of Trump tariffs triggered a global risk aversion wave.
As a typical risk asset, cryptocurrencies were ruthlessly sold off, while gold held steady at $4400-4500 per ounce (approaching $5000 at times), with central banks and institutional holdings reaching new records; oil also became a "winner," with volatile but backed by physical assets.
Tokenized gold on-chain trading volume reached $178 billion in 2025, and continued to surge in March 2026—crypto funds are quietly "moving." These data come from authoritative sources like CoinGlass, CryptoQuant, Bloomberg. This is not a conspiracy but the most objective fact: leverage + high volatility + black swans have jointly created this "expected" crypto storm.
Countless traders' psychological breakdowns: from false hope to complete despair, this "death by a thousand cuts" exposes human nature brutally. Heartfelt confessions flood the community, more painful than candlestick charts: during the March 28 small rebound, "This must be the bottom, right? Just wait a bit for a V-shaped reversal!" adrenaline surges, many add to their positions.
After the March 30 surge in both directions: "Why didn't I sell at 126k? I went all-in with leverage, now I have no living expenses!" Veteran traders (who entered in 2017/2021) see their funds repeatedly halved, staying up all night trading, unable to sleep.
Deep depression: "Is there still a chance for Bitcoin? Is there hope in crypto? Is it all a complete scam?" "Institutions predict a bottom at 40k—should I still hold on?"
Bull markets make heroes, bear markets reveal true character. Millions of traders have been wiped out—not because the market is bad, but because they couldn't withstand the long-term torment.

Where have they all gone? Crypto "refugee" funds are accelerating their move
Money is gone, confidence shattered. Veteran traders are not lying flat but fleeing rationally. A recent survey in South Korea targeting crypto KOLs shows that over half have shifted to US stocks (AI, semiconductors, military industry), precious metals, and commodities. Major players like Multicoin Capital openly deploy in robots and traditional assets. Exchanges have launched gold/oil perpetual contracts, enabling frictionless switching.
Gold remains the biggest winner: over $4400 per ounce, with on-chain versions allowing seamless transition for crypto veterans—24/7 trading, low leverage, physical backing. Oil prices surged due to geopolitical risks, with US stocks providing stable hedges. Crypto community traffic plummeted, while traditional markets are experiencing a "crypto refugee" wave.

Will Bitcoin still have a chance? Is there hope in crypto?
Answer: Short-term pain, long-term strength
Short-term: Several institutions (Zacks, CryptoQuant, Luke Gromen, etc.) predict the next bottom may be around $40,000—corresponding to a 70%-85% retracement historically, well within the cycle framework. If geopolitical tensions escalate or macro tightening continues, new lows could be tested again between June and October.
Long-term: Bitcoin as "digital gold," with increasing institutional adoption (record ETF holdings), scarcity after halving, and its role as a hedge against global inflation remain unchanged. Multiple institutions still see $100k-$200k+ by the end of 2026, with the next bull market peak in 2027-2029 possibly even higher.
Every bear market bottom in history has been a starting point for millionaires—after the 15k bottom in 2022, it shot up to 126k! Hope in crypto has never died; only survivors are fewer and fewer.

April outlook: Volatility leaning weak, watch for two major catalysts
Entering April, the market is likely to continue high-frequency oscillations with potential bottoming:
Continued bearish signals: geopolitical tensions (Hormuz risk), Fed policy uncertainty will still suppress risk assets. BTC may test support at $60k-$55k, possibly approaching the predicted 40k zone.
Potential catalysts: easing signals in Middle East or better-than-expected macro data (inflation cooling) could trigger technical rebounds; halving cycle residuals + ETF inflows still provide long-term support.
Overall judgment: April is not a "bottom-fishing window," but a patience-building period—avoid FOMO, wait for real bottom signals.

Crypto players, where to go from here?
Survival guide (strategic advice, not specific positions):
Stop the bleeding immediately: clear high leverage, switch to spot or stablecoins. Review past liquidation causes daily, limit trading to 1 hour per day, and stay out the rest of the time.
Diversify: treat crypto as a small long-term HODL, combined with precious metals (hedge assets), US stocks (AI/tech), and commodities to form a hedging portfolio—crypto may fall further, but not to the point of total ruin.
Embrace fundamentals: don’t bet on candlestick patterns, learn macro: Fed decisions, geopolitical news, on-chain data, institutional holdings. Platforms launching gold/oil contracts are your new battleground.
Skill upgrade: bear markets are the best schools—learn quant, DeFi yield, traditional fund analysis. Study AI, rare earths, energy—these are the fields where KOLs are making a fortune.
Psychological rebuilding: accept long cycles, surviving is victory.
Community transformation: reduce crypto social media, follow gold experts, commodity futures influencers, adopt a "crypto + traditional" hybrid approach.
All above are not investment advice!!!