Ethereum supply increases by 81,800 ETH! Market pressure intensifies—Can the $1,881 support hold?

Quick core summary: Ethereum has net increased by approximately 81,800 ETH over the past 30 days, with an annualized inflation rate of about 0.82%. In the short term, this results in mild inflation, which exerts indirect pressure on the $1,881 support level but does not pose an immediate breakdown risk. Currently trading around $2,015, support levels are seen at $1,950–$1,910, strong support at $1,881, and resistance initially at $2,050–$2,060.

📊 Key Data and Analysis

- Supply scope: Net increase of 81,790.88 ETH over the past 30 days, total approximately 12.157 million ETH, with an annualized inflation rate of about 0.82%.
- Cause breakdown: Staking rewards issuance (PoS) exceeds EIP-1559 burns, resulting in net inflation, but growth remains moderate.
- On-chain status: Exchange balances are near decade lows, staking rate hits new highs, liquidity remains tight.

🛡️ Support levels and trading strategies

- Short-term pattern: Price is trapped between the psychological $2,000 level and the $2,050 range; $1,881 is a strong support zone.
- Scenario analysis:
- Holding at $1,881: Expect sideways correction, with a rebound targeting $2,050–$2,060;
- Breaking below $1,881 with increased volume: Targeting $1,850–$1,820, strict risk control needed.
- Trading suggestions:
- Long positions: Rebound to $1,910–$1,930 with light positions, stop-loss below $1,880;
- Short positions: Encounter resistance at $2,050–$2,060 with light positions, stop-loss above $2,075.

⚠️ Risk warning

- Regulatory developments, ETF fund flows, and large whale transfers may amplify volatility;
- Supply impact is a medium-term marginal variable; in the short term, focus more on technical and capital flow resonance.

One sentence summary: Mild inflation from supply does not change the short-term consolidation pattern; $1,881 is a key defensive line. Holding it could lead to range-bound recovery, but a breakdown requires cautious risk management. #震荡行情交易策略