Bitcoin mining surpasses 20 million coins: the supply and demand shift with 1 million coins remaining

The Bitcoin network recently completed the mining of its 20,000,000th BTC, marking the official entry of its supply curve into the final stage of stock game dynamics. The total supply cap is 21,000,000 coins, with less than 1 million remaining to be mined. This milestone is not only a mechanical benchmark of hash power and code but also signifies a shift in the core assumption of the scarcity narrative—from “incremental dilution” to “stock solidification”—moving from theoretical deduction to real-world constraints.

Discussions about scarcity in the market have previously revolved around halving events, while the uniqueness of the current node lies in the fact that the remaining supply can no longer support more complete halving cycles, and the elasticity on the supply side is approaching zero.

How Hard Constraints on the Supply Curve Reshape Pricing Logic

The supply mechanism of Bitcoin is determined by a fixed issuance rate and halving cycle defined in its code. With over 20 million coins mined, the marginal impact of new supply on total circulation has dropped to historic lows. The daily new output from miners is currently around 450 coins, which, compared to the thousands produced daily in earlier phases, significantly reduces its direct suppressive ability on market prices. From a supply-demand model perspective, as new supply approaches zero, the behavior structure of stockholders will become the main determinant of price. The number of addresses held by long-term holders and their holding duration are beginning to replace hash power costs or miner sell pressure as more core pricing variables. This shift in mechanism means that scarcity is no longer guaranteed solely by code, but more so depends on the market’s consensus strength regarding “non-renewable assets.”

What Is the Cost of the Scarcity Narrative

The high-intensity propagation of the scarcity narrative has brought significant structural costs. First, liquidity depth has begun to concentrate among a small number of high-net-worth addresses and institutional custody wallets, with the on-chain activity and transaction frequency of the Bitcoin network showing a downward trend over the past several halving cycles. When assets are widely viewed as “stores of value” rather than “mediums of exchange,” their network effects and usage scenarios may face contraction. Second, the hardening of the supply side places long-term adjustment pressure on miner income structures. As block rewards continue to diminish, miners must rely on transaction fee income to sustain operations, while the volatility and uncertainty of transaction fee income are far greater than fixed block rewards. If fee growth cannot cover hash power costs, the clearing of hash power may lead to a phase-wise contraction of network security budgets, creating tension between narrative and reality.

What This Means for the Landscape of Crypto Assets

The strengthening of Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative is reshaping the valuation framework of the entire category of crypto assets. In the perceptions of mainstream institutions and traditional finance, Bitcoin’s designation as “digital gold” is further solidified by the end of supply, accelerating its differentiation in risk attributes from other crypto assets. The value of smart contract platforms like Ethereum is more anchored in application ecosystems and on-chain activities, while Bitcoin’s value logic increasingly leans towards pure scarcity as an asset. This differentiation prompts the market to form a clearer asset stratification: Bitcoin becomes a tool for macro hedging and long-term allocation, while other crypto assets bear more risk premiums and growth narratives. From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin’s market capitalization share often exhibits phase-wise rebounds around the supply end nodes, reflecting a preference for the hardest assets in uncertain environments.

How Future Developments May Unfold

Looking ahead to the next 5 to 10 years, the narrative focus for Bitcoin will undergo a structural shift. In the first phase, the market will closely monitor the mining pace of the remaining 1 million BTC. Based on current hash power and difficulty adjustment mechanisms, the mining cycle for the last 1 million coins may extend until around 2035, but actual timing may vary due to hash power growth, halving time adjustments, and other factors. In the second phase, market attention will shift from the “issuance side” to the “holding side” and “trading side.” The continued expansion of compliant channels such as spot ETFs will further absorb circulating supply, exacerbating the tightening of actual tradable volume. In the third phase, scarcity will evolve from “quantity scarcity” to “liquidity scarcity.” At that point, the characteristics of price fluctuations may undergo fundamental changes: in a low liquidity environment, external macro liquidity (such as the US dollar index, real interest rates) will exert a marginal influence on Bitcoin prices that exceeds that of internal industry events.

Potential Risks and Warnings

The scarcity narrative is not without reverse scenarios. The most notable risk comes from the potential threat of quantum computing to the SHA-256 algorithm; although there is currently no practical attack capability, the long-term uncertainty of technological evolution may undermine the trust foundation at the code level. Second, asymmetric changes in the regulatory environment may restrict Bitcoin’s liquidity channels as a store of value tool, such as limitations on self-custody wallets or compliance scrutiny of on-chain transactions. Furthermore, the scarcity narrative itself carries the risk of a self-fulfilling bubble. If the macro economy enters a prolonged deflationary or extremely tight liquidity environment, Bitcoin’s attributes as a risk asset may regain dominance, suppressing the logic of scarcity under the logic of macro liquidity. Finally, during the mining process of the remaining 1 million coins, if hash power becomes overly concentrated or miner behavior shows abnormal sell pressures, this may also lead to price performances contradictory to the scarcity narrative in the short term.

Conclusion

Bitcoin surpassing the 20,000,000 coin mark signifies its critical transition from “rapidly growing emerging asset” to “solidified mature asset.” The scarcity narrative is shifting from theoretical consensus to real constraints, and the hard boundaries on the supply side are gradually transferring pricing power from miners to long-term holders and institutional allocation demands. This process reinforces Bitcoin’s stratified positioning within the crypto asset system while presenting structural challenges to liquidity structures and network security budgets. The core observation points for the future market will no longer be “how much more can be mined,” but rather “how long are people willing to hold” and “can value consensus be maintained in a low liquidity environment.” For the crypto industry, Bitcoin is completing a paradigm shift from narrative-driven to structure-driven.

FAQ

Q: How long is it expected to take to mine the remaining 1 million Bitcoins?

Based on current halving cycles and hash power growth trends, the mining cycle for the last 1 million Bitcoins is estimated to take about 10 to 12 years, with actual timing potentially fluctuating due to changes in hash power, difficulty adjustments, and halving time windows.

Q: Does the end of Bitcoin’s supply mean prices will only go up?

Not necessarily. Scarcity is one of the foundations of long-term value, but short- to medium-term prices are still influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic liquidity, regulatory policies, market sentiment, and risk appetite.

Q: Can miners still profit during the supply end phase?

The income structure for miners will increasingly depend on on-chain transaction fees. If the usage scenarios for Bitcoin expand and transaction activity increases, fee income may offset the decline in block rewards; conversely, the pressure from hash power clearing will increase.

Q: What is the main impact of the scarcity narrative on ordinary investors?

The scarcity narrative reinforces Bitcoin’s value basis as a long-term allocation asset but also implies further tightening of future tradable liquidity, meaning ordinary investors may face higher price impact costs and wider spreads when buying and selling.