Standard Chartered Analysis: Bitcoin Set to Correct to $50,000 Before Strong Rebound

Standard Chartered releases a bearish outlook for the upcoming quarter on digital assets, projecting Bitcoin to weaken to around $50,000 and Ethereum to drop to $1,400. Although they lower their 2026 annual targets, this leading investment bank remains optimistic about the long-term prospects through 2030.

This downward projection comes amid ongoing pressure on the crypto market due to massive fund outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and global macroeconomic uncertainties. As of publication, Bitcoin is trading around $70,770 with a 3.95% increase in 24 hours, while Ethereum is at $2,150, up 4.47%, indicating high market volatility.

Short-Term Price Targets: Potential Correction Within Months

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, forecasts Bitcoin will undergo a significant correction to $50,000 in the coming months. Ethereum is expected to correct down to $1,400, well below current levels.

This year’s revised targets include major altcoins:

• Bitcoin: from $150,000 to $100,000
• Ethereum: from $7,500 to $4,000
• Solana: from $250 to $135
• BNB Chain: from $1,755 to $1,050
• Avalanche: from $100 to $18

Kendrick’s views reflect an in-depth analysis of ETF investor behavior. Many ETF holders experiencing unrealized losses of about 25% tend to sell to reduce exposure rather than add to positions during price declines. Bitcoin ETF holdings have decreased by nearly 100,000 BTC from the October 2025 peak, when the average purchase price was around $90,000.

Macro Pressures and Market Sentiment: Combined Factors Driving Corrections

The crypto market faces layered pressures early in 2026. Bitcoin has corrected nearly 23% since the start of the year, continuously testing support levels amid rising volatility and large-scale leverage liquidations.

Contributing factors include:

Interest Rate Uncertainty: Although US economic data shows signs of weakening, markets do not anticipate rate cuts before the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh in mid-June. This limits short-term support for risk assets like crypto.

ETF Outflows: Ongoing fund outflows from ETF products exert persistent selling pressure, especially as institutional investors seek diversification.

Correlation with Equities: Cryptos are showing a closer correlation with declines in global stock markets, with risk-off sentiment pushing capital into traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Regulatory Ambiguity: Especially in the US, unclear regulatory impacts continue to pressure investor confidence.

These conditions generate high volatility and bearish sentiment across many tokens, reducing trading revenues for companies exposed to the crypto industry.

When Will a Recovery Occur? Kendrick Optimistic After Capitulation

While acknowledging potential corrections, Kendrick indicates that a recovery is expected throughout the remainder of 2026 after the market hits bottom. This view is supported by the fact that the current crypto market shows better resilience compared to previous cycles.

At its worst in early February, Bitcoin was down only about 50% from the October 2025 all-time high. The still-profitable supply remains around half of the total, indicating a sharp decline but not as severe as past crises.

More importantly, the 2026 cycle is not accompanied by the collapse of major crypto platforms like Terra/Luna and FTX in 2022. Kendrick sees this as a sign that digital assets have reached a higher level of maturity and demonstrate stronger structural resilience.

Currently, Bitcoin has risen above $70,000 after US President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure. Altcoins like Solana ($91.34) and Avalanche ($9.52) also increased by about 5%, alongside gains in crypto mining stocks.

Long-Term Projections Remain Unchanged: $500,000 BTC and $40,000 ETH

Despite lowering the 2026 targets, Standard Chartered maintains its bullish long-term outlook through 2030 without changes. The bank still targets Bitcoin at $500,000 and Ethereum at $40,000 by the end of the decade.

This optimism is based on ongoing adoption trends and fundamental structural factors remaining intact. The long-term view reflects confidence that current pressures are temporary, with clearer regulation and infrastructure maturity opening a new growth phase.

Future market movements depend on geopolitical stability, especially oil prices and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If conditions remain stable, Bitcoin could retest the $74,000–$76,000 range. However, if situations worsen, prices could fall back toward mid-$60,000s.

Standard Chartered’s analysis indicates that despite high volatility and short-term pressures, the fundamentals for long-term recovery remain solid. Investors should prepare for potential further corrections while awaiting a cycle turnaround expected in the second half of 2026.