Middle East tensions escalate causing international oil prices to rise...Will the Strait of Hormuz be able to reopen smoothly?

Global oil prices have risen by over 2%, with increased tensions in the Middle East drawing market attention. Recent U.S. military movements and escalating conflicts with Iran have heightened uncertainties around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil supply route.

As U.S. military presence in the Middle East intensifies, geopolitical tensions further escalate. Reports indicate that approximately 2,200 to 2,500 U.S. Marines stationed in California have been redeployed to the Middle East, and an additional 2,200 Marines from Okinawa have been urgently dispatched. These military actions suggest the possibility of direct U.S. military intervention against Iran.

The immediate cause of this situation is the U.S. strategy targeting Iran’s key oil export hub, Kharg Island. President Donald Trump mentioned the absence of Iranian leadership, signaling a breakdown in diplomatic channels. Iran has also shown reluctance to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, adding pressure to the oil supply chain and contributing to rising oil prices.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that restrictions on oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to exert upward pressure on prices. As the world’s main oil corridor, any blockade would significantly impact the market. Additionally, Hellema Croft from Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets pointed out that while the U.S. government is trying to convey a message of short-term supply disruption, the possibility of limited conflict still exists.

Experts warn that even if tensions ease or conflicts end, restarting oil facilities could take considerable time. International Energy Agency Director Fatih Birol said that after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, some facilities might still need up to six months to resume operations. In this context, international oil prices are likely to remain on an upward trend in the short term, and developments in the Middle East will continue to be closely watched for their market impact.