The Market Does Not Operate Based on Majority Belief

It’s hard to understand why so many people still expect Bitcoin to continue dropping sharply.

Look at the actual data: Bitcoin has previously fallen to the $60,000 range — meaning it broke through the previous all-time high (ATH). In history, this only happened once in 2022, when the price dropped to $15,000, about 20% below the previous cycle’s $20,000 peak. But remember: in 2021, Bitcoin increased by 3.5 times compared to the old high. And in the current cycle? We’ve only reached about 0.7 times the previous ATH — a very modest increase. Yet many are expecting an extreme scenario: Price falling below $50,000, which is over 30% below the 2021 peak, and becoming the deepest bottom in cycle history. Does that make sense? The weakest bull cycle… but with the sharpest decline? Moreover, the current macroeconomic context shows the economic cycle is entering an expansion phase, not a recession — which usually supports risky assets like Bitcoin. The problem lies in mindset. Too many are “anchored” to the 4-year cycle model — a simple, easy-to-understand framework, but it doesn’t fully reflect market reality. Markets don’t operate based on the expectations of the majority. They operate based on liquidity, capital flows, and macroeconomic conditions. And those who blindly believe in a familiar scenario… will be the ones most likely to get stuck when the market moves in the opposite direction.