BTC continues to fluctuate within a wide range. When will the consolidation and trend reversal end?

1. Daily chart: Currently, the highest rebound point is near 74,000, at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level in Chart 1. Recently, the rebound high has decreased to below 72,000, with trading volume slightly shrinking; it is expected that there will be further wide-range fluctuations, and around the 17th, a third rebound high may occur below 72,000.
2. Order book: The amount of sell orders has started to show larger sums, but the volume is not stacking up and no large sell orders are continuing to appear. Therefore, the price is likely to continue consolidating within a wide range and build momentum.
3. Spot ETF institutions: Funds have been net inflowing for three consecutive weeks, with amounts of 767 million USD, 568 million USD, and a net inflow of 417 million USD so far this week. Overall, weekly net inflows are relatively small; thus, the rebound height is limited.
4. The price is still in the fourth wave rebound stage on the weekly chart, which has been ongoing for 34 days, with a maximum rebound of 24%.
Summary:
1. Continue to observe whether the rebound high points are gradually decreasing. If the third rebound high remains below 72,000, it is expected that around the 17th, there could be a third rebound high, with trading volume continuing to shrink, price volatility narrowing, and the structure converging. In that case, the trend reversal on the daily chart will become increasingly imminent, possibly occurring after March 17.
2. Based on current trading volume, bullish momentum, and net inflow of funds from spot ETF institutions, I estimate that the fourth wave rebound high will settle around 74,000. If the price of BTC still does not trigger a trend reversal around the 17th, the consolidation period will extend. The longer the sideways range lasts, the sharper the subsequent decline.
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