💥 It's over! The hope for a rate cut in March has been shattered. How should the crypto market proceed next?

I looked at the latest CME data, and my heart sank— the probability of a rate cut in March is only 2.6%, and the chance of no rate cut is as high as 97.4%. It’s basically certain: there’s no need to expect a rate cut at the FOMC meeting on March 20.

Many friends might still be in shock: weren’t we all talking about a rate cut before? Why the sudden change?

# When will the Federal Reserve cut rates?

The root causes are twofold: ongoing tensions in the Middle East + rising oil prices. As geopolitical conflicts heat up, oil prices tend to surge, and when oil prices go up, inflation expectations naturally follow. The Fed’s biggest concern is persistent inflation; as long as inflation data doesn’t improve, they dare not loosen policy easily.

This missed expectation—what impact does it have on the crypto market?

First, short-term liquidity expectations are tightening. A rate cut would mean more funds entering the market, but that door is now temporarily closed. The upward momentum driven by macroeconomic optimism has stalled in the short term.

Second, market sentiment is leaning towards caution. In the next one or two weeks, a volatile or slightly weak trend is highly likely. Those still playing with high leverage are advised to reduce positions first.

My view: stop betting on a rate cut in March; that’s a very low probability event. The real focus should be on the meeting on April 29—see if inflation data can be brought under control. Short-term strategy: reduce leverage, control positions, and avoid chasing highs.