Analyst: The short-term Bitcoin holding group is selling at a loss, and the market pressure structure remains unchanged.

Mars Finance News, March 9 — Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel stated in a recent report that over the past 8 days, the “Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR” indicator has been below 1.0 for 7 days, indicating that this group is systematically selling below cost. Only on March 4, when the price briefly touched $70,800, did the indicator break above 1.0, then quickly revert to a loss-selling mode. Meanwhile, the “Short-Term Holder Supply” indicator decreased from about 6.06 million BTC to 5.92 million BTC, a reduction of 140,000 BTC in two weeks. The average cost for this group is approximately $89,028, while the current market price is about $67,175, a 24% difference, facing significant unrealized losses. Axel explained that the decline in supply may reflect two scenarios: either capitulation with realized losses or natural “maturation” of holdings into long-term positions. The large gap between cost basis and current price creates a structural oversupply; if prices rebound, some short-term holders might exit without losses during the rebound, further suppressing the rally. A true market shift signal requires SOPR to stay above 1.0 for several consecutive days and for prices to rise in tandem.