MVC Market Insights (3.9-3.15)

Recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and market pricing of the Iran conflict is still evolving. Our assessment is that the United States is unlikely to deploy ground troops; internally, Iran is more likely to leverage external pressure to legitimize a reshuffle of its regime. If oil prices rise by 20%, it will trigger a policy response mechanism in the U.S., which remains manageable overall. Before oil prices fall below $100, geopolitical risk premiums will continue to disturb market sentiment. However, the long-term trend—especially for commodities and precious metals—remains upward. We plan to increase positions on dips with new funds.

Against this backdrop, our core focus is on three main themes:

1. Commodities and Resources. Geopolitical risks combined with a restructuring of the credit system keep gold prices high. We remain optimistic about the precious metals sector and have gradually positioned in gold mining-related assets. Copper, as a medium- to long-term allocation, will benefit from future liquidity expansion cycles, and we are also watching for entry points.

2. Digital Assets. Bitcoin has recently outperformed stocks, but clear trend reversal signals have yet to appear. We maintain a cautious stance, primarily monitoring for downside control and awaiting confirmation of a turning point in dollar liquidity.

3. AI and Technology. Currently, the market’s valuation of leading AI companies is quite full, making it difficult to find excess consensus in the short term. Future movements will heavily depend on changes in the global liquidity environment.

Overall, we continue to focus on the two core judgments: “Reconstruction of the traditional credit system” and “East rising, West declining.” We emphasize allocating resources denominated in RMB, seeking resilience within certainty.