The global financial technical system is spinning: Will Bitcoin surge or crash?

Three months have passed since the “balance sheet” meeting of the world’s major economies at the end of 2025. At that time, the crypto market expected a bright “Christmas,” but the structure of the global technical system was facing unprecedented pressures. From signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve to reflationary stimulus packages from Japan, from the UK’s debt crisis to the weakening yen—all these have shaped a completely new economic landscape. The question is no longer “Will Bitcoin survive?” but rather “Which structural elements of the system will help or hinder it?”

Changing Monetary Policy Structures: When the Fed Shifts Its Stance

In late November 2025, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve skyrocketed from about 20% to 86% in just one week. This is not a minor change—it’s a clear signal that U.S. monetary policy structure is significantly shifting.

The main reason cited was the Dallas Fed’s “Beige Book” report, which compiles data from 12 economic regions across the U.S. Due to the U.S. government unexpectedly shutting down, many official economic indicators could not be updated promptly. This report became one of the rare windows reflecting the actual economic reality. Its contents are straightforward: economic activity is nearly stalled, the labor market continues to weaken, business cost pressures are rising, while consumer markets remain cautious.

Even at a technical level, these changes are confirmed by the latest data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by only 2.7% year-over-year, the lowest since July. This indicates that inflationary pressures are no longer the Fed’s primary concern.

Statements from Fed officials in the following two weeks revealed a deeper shift. Instead of emphasizing “maintaining sufficiently tight policy” as they did throughout the previous year, officials began using words like “stability,” “slowing down,” and “moving toward a more balanced approach.” Some even explicitly warned that excessive tightening could pose unnecessary economic risks. This signals that the technical policy system is no longer one-directional but has entered a phase of fine-tuning.

Global Liquidity System Restructuring: When Major Economies “Print Money”

While the Fed prepares to change course, other major economies are quietly ramping up reflation measures. Japan leads with a historic stimulus package: issuing at least 11.5 trillion yen in new bonds (about $73.5 billion)—almost double the size of last year’s stimulus. A dramatic shift from “caution” to “economic support.”

However, Japan’s technical system structure carries risks: Japanese government bond yields surged to 20-year highs, and the yen continued to weaken. These are not positive signs but warnings—markets are concerned about Japan’s long-term fiscal sustainability. As a result, Asian capital flows are seeking “safer” havens, and crypto assets are now on their radar.

The UK faces an independent crisis. The new budget draft not only raises taxes but also leaves a fiscal structure of “spending first, paying later.” Over the past seven months, the UK government borrowed £117 billion—almost equal to the entire bailout of the banking system in 2008. In other words, the UK’s debt system has reached a crisis level without an actual crisis occurring.

The outcome is growing market pessimism: the UK “runs out of money,” Japanese bond yields are high, the yen is weak—all exerting pressure on traditional monetary systems. When fiat currencies begin to depreciate passively, hard assets like Bitcoin become more attractive.

Market Technical Analysis: When Christmas Meets Seasonal Effects

Entering Q4 2025, the correlation between the US crypto and stock markets reached nearly 0.8. This means their ups and downs are almost synchronized. On-chain accumulation signals strengthened, while low liquidity during holidays often amplifies any rally into a “reactionless” surge.

The “Christmas Effect,” a concept introduced by Yale Hirsch in 1972, typically appears in the last five trading days of December and the first two days of January. Over the past 73 years, the S&P 500 has risen around Christmas in 58 years—an almost 80% probability. However, this year’s “effect” differs: it is not a natural trend but the result of a combination of loose monetary policy, a restructured global liquidity system, and market sentiment turning optimistic.

At that time, analysis suggested that if US stocks experienced the Christmas effect, Bitcoin would be the most reactive asset. Ethereum, with its small-cap-like beta and high volatility, was expected to see even larger gains.

Bitcoin in the New Asset System: The Reality After Three Months

Looking back over the past three months, the expectations set at the end of 2025 have been tested. Bitcoin is currently trading at $70,190, down 2.94% in 24 hours but up 3.88% over the past week and down 8% over the last 30 days. The market remains volatile, but the fundamental trends have not changed significantly.

What’s more interesting is how the market perceives the structure of the global technical system. Instead of viewing Bitcoin solely as a high-risk asset, institutional investors are beginning to see it as part of an asset allocation strategy amid a weakening monetary system. This shift from “speculative asset” to “hedge asset” is the most meaningful.

As global liquidity expands, as major economies acknowledge that tightening is not the solution, and as the traditional monetary system shows signs of strain—this is the context in which digital assets find more rational reasons to persist.

Finally, the question “Christmas or Christmas disaster” has been answered differently—not all predictions came true, but the fundamental laws of economic system structure remain valid. When the system faces pressure, “hard” assets always find buyers.