Mysterious Accounts Accurately Bet on Airstrikes in Iran, Trump Camp Faces "Insider Trading" Allegations
Just over the weekend, as global traditional financial markets were closed, a large influx of funds flowed into prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges such as Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge risks or speculate on the subsequent impact of the US and Israel's attacks on Iran through these platforms. As tensions escalated before the airstrikes, sharp-eyed traders began heavily betting on the direction of the Middle East conflict. Among these, prediction contracts highly related to geopolitics—such as "Will Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei be ousted soon?"—were especially popular and received strong promotion from mainstream prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. However, this capital frenzy quickly turned into a public opinion storm. Last Saturday, a large number of doubts and accusations emerged on social platform X, alleging that some insiders exploited their advance knowledge of military strikes to profit massively in prediction markets. Similar allegations had previously appeared in the financial circles when the US military targeted Venezuela and forcibly took control of Maduro. These suspected "war profiteering" activities have sparked strong outrage in US politics. Democratic Congressman Mike Levin exposed on social media that a Polymarket account named "Magamyman" made a $515,000 profit in a single day by betting that the US would strike Iran. "Such behavior is actually legal, which is utterly absurd. People around Trump are profiting from war and death, and I will soon propose legislation to ban these kinds of transactions entirely," Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy angrily condemned in response to these allegations. #美国以色列突袭伊朗BTC短线跳水
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Mysterious Accounts Accurately Bet on Airstrikes in Iran, Trump Camp Faces "Insider Trading" Allegations
Just over the weekend, as global traditional financial markets were closed, a large influx of funds flowed into prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges such as Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge risks or speculate on the subsequent impact of the US and Israel's attacks on Iran through these platforms.
As tensions escalated before the airstrikes, sharp-eyed traders began heavily betting on the direction of the Middle East conflict. Among these, prediction contracts highly related to geopolitics—such as "Will Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei be ousted soon?"—were especially popular and received strong promotion from mainstream prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.
However, this capital frenzy quickly turned into a public opinion storm. Last Saturday, a large number of doubts and accusations emerged on social platform X, alleging that some insiders exploited their advance knowledge of military strikes to profit massively in prediction markets. Similar allegations had previously appeared in the financial circles when the US military targeted Venezuela and forcibly took control of Maduro.
These suspected "war profiteering" activities have sparked strong outrage in US politics. Democratic Congressman Mike Levin exposed on social media that a Polymarket account named "Magamyman" made a $515,000 profit in a single day by betting that the US would strike Iran.
"Such behavior is actually legal, which is utterly absurd. People around Trump are profiting from war and death, and I will soon propose legislation to ban these kinds of transactions entirely," Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy angrily condemned in response to these allegations. #美国以色列突袭伊朗BTC短线跳水