【$ETH Signal】1H Oversold Rebound Play, Short Squeeze Opportunity Under Negative Funding Rate

$ETH The 1H timeframe experienced intense volatility between 1936-1968, forming a short-term support around the current price of 1947. RSI_1H has entered the oversold zone (30.69), indicating a technical rebound demand. Although the 4H timeframe is still in a downtrend, the latest 4H candle closed with a long lower shadow, and open interest (OI) remains stable. Coupled with a -0.011% negative funding rate, conditions for a short squeeze are preliminarily in place. The order book shows a large sell wall at the first ask (1946.7) with 50.95 ETH, serving as a key short-term resistance. A breakout above this level could trigger stop-loss orders from short positions.

🎯Direction: Long (Long)

🎯Entry/Orders: Aggressive traders can try a small long position at the current price of 1947-1950. Conservative traders wait for a breakout order: chase longs after breaking 1958.

🛑Stop Loss: 1935 (below the 1H support level and previous low of 1936)

🚀Target 1: 1975 (1H EMA20 and previous minor resistance)

🚀Target 2: 1995 (4H EMA50 and a key psychological level)

🛡Trade Management:

- Position size recommendation: small position (1-2% of total capital)

- Execution strategy: after reaching Target 1, reduce position by 50% and move stop loss to entry price (break-even). Keep the remaining position aiming for Target 2. If the price stalls near Target 1 and falls below the trailing stop, exit all positions.

Deep Logic: Price dropped rapidly from 2063 to 1936, but OI remained stable, suggesting the decline was mainly driven by long leverage liquidations rather than continuous selling by major funds. The negative funding rate increases the cost for short positions. The 1H RSI shows early signs of bullish divergence. The order book depth imbalance (-98.07%) indicates concentrated but thin selling pressure above. Once absorbed by buyers, the rebound could accelerate quickly. This is a typical oversold rebound with a potential short squeeze scenario.

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