The significance of the U.S.-Iran confrontation escalating with Trump's 10-day notice

President Donald Trump has issued a 10-day deadline to Tehran, marking a new escalation in the confrontation between the United States and Iran. At the Washington conference on February 19, he warned that unless a “meaningful agreement” is reached, “really bad things” will continue to happen. This warning stems from deep-rooted conflicts over nuclear issues and regional security. The significance of this confrontation and its implications for the international order are closely watched.

Military Deployment Signals Serious Warning

After negotiations, the U.S. rapidly strengthened its military presence in the Middle East. Cargo planes, fighter jets, refueling tankers, and aircraft carriers have been deployed, with a second carrier group possibly arriving soon. This scale of military buildup strongly suggests that Washington is preparing for potential military action. Although officials have not officially confirmed operational plans, the military deployment itself serves as a message.

This physical show of force emphasizes verbal warnings and is interpreted as a serious signal rather than mere threats. The Trump administration’s pressure strategy combines diplomatic negotiations with military threats.

Negotiation Progress and Deep Gaps

Indirect talks held in Switzerland on February 17 produced contrasting assessments. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif described the discussions as showing “good progress” and announced that both sides had reached an understanding on guiding principles. Meanwhile, the U.S. side remains more cautious. Vice President J.D. Vance acknowledged some progress but pointed out that Iran continues to reject key U.S. demands.

The U.S. seeks complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, restrictions on ballistic missile development, and an end to support for regional proxy groups. These core issues are preventing a breakthrough. While progress appears to be made, substantial gaps remain unbridged.

Iran’s Domestic Crisis Complicates Escalation

Notably, amid the escalating U.S.-Iran confrontation, Iran’s internal situation is rapidly deteriorating. Protests over economic conditions spread nationwide in January, reaching a scale reminiscent of the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” movement.

Authorities reported widespread internet shutdowns and severe repression. Human rights groups say thousands have been killed or detained. This domestic turmoil influences Iran’s foreign policy. Iran has told the UN that it considers U.S. regional bases and assets “legitimate targets” if attacked, while also demonstrating strength through joint military exercises with Russia and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While claiming not to seek war, Iran indicates it is prepared for confrontation.

Opposition leaders, including exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, argue that any U.S.-Iran agreement merely prolongs the Islamic Republic’s rule and does not address fundamental regime change. This domestic division and Iran’s complex stance make the escalation even more unpredictable.

Diplomacy or Confrontation: A Critical Choice

The 10-day deadline sets a crucial period ahead—will it lead to a diplomatic resolution or escalate tensions into open conflict? Since withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, the U.S. has had fundamental disagreements with Iran over nuclear enrichment, missile capabilities, and regional alliances.

Despite the military posture, a diplomatic outcome remains possible. However, the firm stances of both sides and increasing domestic instability make swift breakthroughs unlikely. How this escalation unfolds will have profound implications not only for U.S.-Iran relations but also for the entire Middle East and the global order.