Cryptocurrency Market Morning Analysis: Oscillation and Strategy Response After Rebound Fails

Tech Stock Sentiment Dragging Down, Cryptocurrency Market Rebounds Encounter Resistance, Short-term May Enter 64000-70000 USD Range Consolidation

Market Overview: Rise and Fall, Confidence Crisis Continues

As of the morning of February 27, 2026, the global cryptocurrency market, after an unexpected rebound on the previous trading day (February 26), has once again entered a correction phase. Bitcoin's price retreated from nearly 70,000 USD, dropping as much as 3.5% to 66,511 USD, currently trading around 67,000 USD, with a 24-hour decline of approximately 2.54%. Ethereum performed even weaker, briefly falling below the 2000 USD mark, with a decline of over 3.5%.

This correction has shattered some investors' optimistic expectations of market bottoming. Although the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded over 500 million USD in net inflows on February 26, ending a streak of outflows, the total net outflow this year still reaches about 1.7 billion USD. Market sentiment has shifted from brief excitement to caution. Kaiko analyst Adam McCarthy pointed out: “In bear markets and periods of low liquidity, such rebounds are expected. As we see, this rally lacked sufficient support, so a pullback is not surprising.”

Core Driving Factors Analysis

1. Significant Transmission Effect of Tech Stock Sentiment

The correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the US tech sector has been particularly evident recently. Despite Nvidia reporting strong earnings, concerns over the sustainability of its AI spending led to a stock plunge of over 5%, dragging the Nasdaq down nearly 1.18%. This decline in risk appetite directly transmitted to the crypto market. Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, said: “The end of the crypto winter is not ending with excitement, but with indifference.”

2. Macroeconomic Policy Uncertainty Suppresses

The Fed’s rate cut expectations continue to be delayed, with high interest rate environments lasting longer than expected, putting pressure on valuations of global risk assets. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s tariffs policy has been officially implemented, with a 10% “global tariff” taking effect, raising concerns about the global trade environment and prompting capital to withdraw from high-risk assets. On geopolitical fronts, progress in US-Iran negotiations offers positive signals, but uncertainties remain.

3. Divergence in Institutional Capital Flows

The flow of funds into US spot Bitcoin ETFs has become an important short-term market indicator. On February 26, a net inflow of 506.6 million USD supported market rebound. However, institutional behaviors are diverging: on one hand, DDC Enterprise increased Bitcoin holdings for the seventh consecutive week, holding a total of 2,118 BTC; on the other hand, publicly listed miner Bit Deer Liquidated its 1,133 BTC holdings, becoming the first listed miner with zero Bitcoin holdings.

4. Regulatory Environment Complexity

Regulatory landscape shows a “divide between East and West.” Hong Kong plans to issue its first stablecoin licenses in March and establish a licensing system for digital asset trading; the US Department of Labor has revoked restrictive guidelines from 2022 on the use of crypto assets in retirement plans. Meanwhile, China’s Supreme Court has clarified that it will strengthen judicial responses to new financial cases involving virtual currencies, and eight departments including the People’s Bank of China have issued notices to further prevent virtual currency risks.

Technical Analysis: Establishment of Range Consolidation

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

From technical indicators, Bitcoin is currently in a “mid-term bearish trend unchanged, short-term oversold rebound correction” state:

Daily Level: Price is weakly oscillating near the lower boundary of the downtrend channel, with medium- and long-term moving averages still in a bearish alignment. MACD is forming a bullish crossover below the zero line, indicating short-term rebound demand, but lack of volume prevents trend reversal.

4-Hour Level: Price oscillates within 64000-68000 USD, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with relatively balanced bullish and bearish momentum. RSI hovers around 50, with no clear directional bias, likely maintaining range consolidation.

Key Levels:

Strong Support: 64200-65000 USD (stability zone for this rebound)

Ultimate Support: 60000 USD (yearly low, weekly vital support)

First Resistance: 67500-68000 USD (24-hour high, dense trapped positions)

Strong Resistance: 69000-70000 USD (key point for medium-term trend reversal)

Ethereum Technical Outlook

Ethereum’s technical picture is weaker, having broken below the 1900 USD key support level. Short-term core support is concentrated around 1850-1860 USD. If broken, further decline toward 1800 USD is likely.

Operational Strategy Recommendations

For Different Investor Tiers

1. Long-term Spot Holders

Core Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging in phases, strictly control positions, ignore short-term volatility.

Use “Deep Drop Doubling” strategy: Base investment amount × (1 + decline percentage ). For example, if BTC drops 15% in a day, increase the periodic investment by 15% to dilute costs effectively.

Keep positions within 5% of total assets, avoid emotional trading.

Focus on core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, held through compliant channels.

Reserve 20% cash for extreme opportunities, and when the Fear & Greed Index ( is below 20, gradually buy the dip.

2. Short-term Contract Traders

Core Strategy: Range-bound thinking, strict risk control, avoid high leverage.

Bitcoin trading range: 64500-68000 USD

- If price pulls back to 64500-65000 USD and stabilizes, consider small long positions with stop-loss below 63500 USD.

- If rebound reaches 67500-68000 USD and faces resistance, consider small short positions with stop-loss above 68500 USD.

Ethereum trading range: 1950-2080 USD

- If price pulls back to around 2000 USD and stabilizes, consider small long positions with stop-loss below 1950 USD.

- If rebound reaches 2050-2070 USD and faces resistance, consider small short positions with stop-loss above 2100 USD.

Position management: No single position should exceed 10% of total funds; strictly avoid overnight positions to prevent panic selling chain reactions.

3. Novice Investors

Given the high market uncertainty and volatility, it is not recommended for beginners to enter trading now. Prioritize risk awareness, understand the risks and regulatory policies related to virtual currency trading, and avoid blindly following the market.

Risk Control Points

Leverage liquidation: Immediately close high-leverage contracts to avoid liquidation and permanent loss.

Rebalance positions: Limit single-asset holdings to within 15% of total assets.

Set hard stop-loss: Use key support levels (e.g., 200-day moving average) as a 3% break point for circuit breakers.

Hedge with traditional assets: Allocate 5%-10% of funds to gold ETFs or government bond repurchase agreements to reduce overall portfolio volatility.

Market Outlook and Key Monitoring Indicators

Short-term (1-4 weeks)

Bitcoin is likely to remain in the 64000-70000 USD range, with intense bulls and bears competition. A trendful move awaits core catalysts like the March Fed rate decision. If the Fed’s rate cut expectations materialize and ETF fund inflows continue, prices may recover; if macro tightening persists and regulations tighten, there is a risk of further decline below 60000 USD.

Medium-term (1-3 months)

The market is still in a bottoming process, which will last for some time and may be chaotic, possibly with lower lows. Bernstein analyst believes this is merely a “confidence crisis.” Despite Bitcoin’s sell-off, the underlying infrastructure remains intact: exchanges operate normally, custodians are solvent, and institutional buyers remain committed.

Long-term Value Support

Bitcoin’s halving narrative, institutional compliance progress, and technological innovation still provide long-term value support. All top 29 global investment advisory firms hold Bitcoin, indicating ongoing institutional demand.

Key Monitoring Indicators

Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index rises above 20.

Fund Flows: Coinbase premium returns to positive, Bitcoin ETF inflows turn positive and persist for over 3 days.

Technical Signals: Bitcoin breaks above 68000 USD with volume on daily chart and stabilizes; MACD shows bullish divergence.

Macro Events: March Fed rate decision (with a 98% probability of holding rates steady), US PPI and unemployment claims data, US-Iran developments.

The current cryptocurrency market is in a “confidence crisis” adjustment phase, with technical rebounds lacking sustained fundamental support. Investors should recognize that the end of the crypto winter will not end with excitement but with indifference. Under high macro uncertainty and diverging institutional flows, the market is unlikely to break out of a trend in the short term.

For investors with different risk preferences, tailored strategies should be adopted: long-term holders can gradually accumulate during oversold zones but must strictly control positions; short-term traders should focus on range-bound strategies with strict stop-losses; beginners should stay on the sidelines and prioritize risk awareness. In crypto markets, surviving longer is more important than earning quickly.

Risk Warning: Virtual currencies are not legal tender and do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies. Their trading is not protected by law. Crypto trading involves high market risk, leverage risk, regulatory risk, liquidity risk, and extreme price volatility, which may lead to total loss of principal. All content in this article is for informational and market analysis purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.