Bitcoin vs Gold: When RSI Reaches Historic Extremes, What Comes Next?

Most investors track Bitcoin’s performance against the dollar. But that lens might be missing the full picture. When you measure Bitcoin against Gold instead, the technical readings tell a dramatically different story — one where RSI has just hit the lowest level in its entire history relative to the yellow metal.

The Pricing Perspective: Why Gold Matters as a Benchmark

Bitcoin peaked relative to Gold in December 2024. Since that point, a roughly 14-month relative downturn has unfolded. This matters because it reveals something dollars alone cannot. When precious metals like Gold and Silver experience strong rallies simultaneously, Bitcoin’s October 2025 new all-time high in dollar terms may have been partially distorted by what analysts call the “denominator effect” — a currency illusion rather than true strength.

Pricing Bitcoin in Gold provides a cleaner view. It strips away currency fluctuations and reveals the asset’s true relative position. What emerges is striking: Bitcoin has reached historically oversold conditions against Gold. The RSI reading is the most extreme on record.

History’s 14-Month Pattern: A Cycle Repeating

Look deeper into Bitcoin’s history, and a consistent rhythm emerges:

• November 2013 → January 2015 = 14 months of relative weakness
• December 2017 → February 2019 = 14 months of relative weakness
• April 2021 → June 2022 = 14 months of relative weakness

Now compare that to the current period: December 2024 → February 2026 = approximately 14 months.

Bitcoin is not a few months into a fresh downturn. The timeline suggests we’re reaching the same duration that preceded every major market transition in the asset’s history.

Maximum Weakness Before Expansion

What happened after each of those prior 14-month cycles? The story is consistent:

• 2015 → 2017: Multi-year expansion
• 2019 → 2021: Multi-year expansion
• 2022 → 2024: Multi-year expansion

Each transition began from the exact conditions we see today: extreme relative weakness, deeply oversold momentum readings, and maximum pessimism on relative performance.

Now Bitcoin sits at historic lows on the RSI when measured against Gold. It is at the same cycle duration as prior turning points. Pessimism on relative strength is at extremes.

Two Interpretations, One Inflection Point

The key question becomes: Are we early in a new bear market, or are we at the exhaustion point of an old one?

If historical patterns hold, extremes like these — especially an RSI reading that has never been lower in Bitcoin’s history relative to Gold — have marked turning points, not beginnings. When assets reach maximum weakness against their benchmarks, reversals typically follow.

This distinction matters. Breakdown territory and compression before expansion look identical in the moment. But they have dramatically different outcomes. Anyone betting on continued weakness at these RSI extremes is wagering that Bitcoin’s most oversold condition in history keeps accelerating lower — possible, but historically unlikely.

The RSI reading against Gold whispers what the dollar price cannot: we may be at inflection, not inception.