February 25, 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Deep Dive: Double Pressure of Tariff Storm and ETF Outflows Leads to Oversold Rebound and Survival Strategies

Today’s cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic rollercoaster, with Bitcoin briefly breaking through the $66,000 level driven by oversold rebound and short covering, marking the largest intraday gain since February 13. However, as Trump’s State of the Union speech progressed, market sentiment quickly weakened, and gains were largely retraced. The current market remains under dual pressure from macroeconomic bearishness and technical breakdowns, with institutional funds continuing to withdraw, and the short-term trend remains bearish.

1. Market Overview: Technical Rebound Amidst Volatility

As of tonight, Bitcoin is quoted around $65,500, with a daily high of $66,300 and a low of $63,913, with a volatility of 3.73%. Ethereum is around $1,906, with a maximum daily increase of 4.84%. Small and mid-cap cryptocurrencies generally followed the rebound, with Solana rising as much as 5.48% and XRP up 3.53%.

However, this rebound is essentially a technical correction after a sharp decline. In the past 24 hours, global crypto contract liquidations surged to $364 million, with over 126,000 traders liquidated, of which more than 72% were long positions. Market sentiment indicators show Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 6, in the “Extreme Fear” zone, the lowest since the beginning of 2026.

2. Core Drivers: Multiple Bearish Factors Resonating

Trump Tariff Policy Officially Enforced: Yesterday (February 24), Trump’s 10% “Global Tariff” officially took effect. The White House bypassed Congress via Section 122 of the Trade Act, extending the tariff framework for 150 days. The tightening of tariffs triggered global market turbulence, with funds rapidly exiting high-risk assets, with cryptocurrencies bearing the brunt.

ETF Fund Outflows Hit Record High: The US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced net outflows for the sixth consecutive trading day, with cumulative outflows exceeding $24 billion in February, setting a record for single-day net outflows since launch. Large-scale institutional withdrawals have created a vicious cycle of “fund outflows - price declines - liquidations - further selling.”

Hawkish Fed Statements Suppress Rate Cut Expectations: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee publicly stated that current inflation “is not yet good enough,” implying the Fed is unlikely to rush into rate cuts in the near term. Market expectations for a June rate cut continue to decline, making it difficult to sustain liquidity support for the crypto market.

Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Trump expressed support for Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, increasing Middle East military tensions. Deribit data shows nearly $230 million in put options expiring on March 6 at the $58,000 strike, indicating market seeking downside protection.

3. Technical Analysis: Downward Breakout Pattern Confirmed

Bitcoin’s daily chart has broken below three key support levels at $65,000, $64,000, and $63,000. Moving averages are in a highly weak bearish alignment, and MACD is sharply below zero, indicating strong downward momentum. Key support levels are at $62,700 and $62,000; breaking below $62,000 could lead to further declines toward the $60,000 level. Resistance is concentrated at $63,500 and $65,000.

Ethereum’s technical picture is even weaker, having broken below critical support at $1,900 and $1,880, approaching the previous low from February 6. Short-term support levels are at $1,860 and $1,850; if broken, further declines toward $1,800 are likely. Resistance is at $1,890 and $1,920.

4. Trading Strategies: Focus on Defense, Exercise Caution

Conservative Approach (Recommended for Most Investors):

- Stay on the Sidelines: Given the “dual bearish resonance + technical breakdown + panic selling,” right-side trading is safer. Wait patiently for price volume to break key supports (e.g., Bitcoin’s $60,000) to short, or for volume to break above and hold above key resistances (e.g., Bitcoin’s $66,000) to go long.

- Strict Position Control: Keep total exposure below 40%, maintaining at least 60% in cash or compliant stablecoins (USDC/DAI) to prepare for further declines.

- Core Asset Focus: If holding spot positions, focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum through compliant channels, avoiding leverage.

Aggressive Approach (For Experienced Traders Only):

- Light Long Positions: Try small longs around $64,200–$64,500 for Bitcoin, with strict stop-loss below $63,500; for Ethereum, try around $1,860–$1,880, with stops below $1,850.

- Short on Rebounds: Short Bitcoin in the $66,300–$67,000 range, with stops above $67,500, targeting below $65,000.

- Fast Entry and Exit: Hold positions no longer than 30 minutes, strictly avoiding overnight holds to prevent panic-driven further drops.

5. Risk Alerts and Monitoring Indicators

Crypto markets are highly volatile, currently in extreme panic, with increased liquidation risks due to leverage. Investors should make cautious decisions based on their risk tolerance and avoid high leverage.

Key Monitoring Indicators:

- Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index rising above 20.

- Capital Flows: Coinbase premium returning positive, Bitcoin ETF fund flows turning positive and lasting over 3 days.

- Technical Signals: Volume breakout above $66,000 on Bitcoin’s daily chart and MACD bullish divergence.

- Macro Events: Fed officials’ speeches, US PPI and initial jobless claims data, US-Iran developments, and follow-up on Trump’s tariff policies.

6. Long-Term Perspective: Structural Trends Continue

Despite short-term market weakness, infrastructure development in the crypto ecosystem persists. Structural trends like RWA tokenization, DeFi and TradFi integration remain unaffected. Stablecoin supply grows 50% annually, indicating ongoing capital inflows at an exponential rate. For long-term investors, current market corrections offer opportunities for dollar-cost averaging into core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but with a longer time horizon to smooth short-term volatility.

Summary: Today’s oversold rebound cannot change the current extremely bearish pattern. Under multiple pressures from tariff uncertainties, ETF outflows, and technical breakdowns, the market is likely to face further downside in the short term. Investors should prioritize defense, strictly control positions, and wait for clearer signs of stabilization. In crypto markets, survival is more important than quick gains. #比特币反弹 $BTC