#BTCMarketAnalysis

Gate Square Daily | Feb 24, 2026
The cryptocurrency and global financial markets are entering a period of heightened volatility and strategic repositioning. Today’s Gate Square Daily highlights five critical developments impacting capital flows, on-chain activity, geopolitics, and macroeconomic conditions. These updates provide insight into where markets are headed and how traders can navigate the current landscape.
1️⃣ Capital Flows: Spot BTC ETFs See Five Weeks of Outflows
One of the most significant trends in recent weeks has been the continuous outflow from Spot BTC ETFs, which has now persisted for five straight weeks, the longest streak since early 2025. These outflows highlight growing caution among institutional and retail investors regarding Bitcoin exposure.
Several factors are contributing to this trend:
Macro uncertainty: Rising inflation, ongoing tariff announcements, and potential geopolitical conflicts have increased risk aversion. Investors are rotating from risk assets into safer stores of value.
Profit-taking: Bitcoin has experienced significant gains over the past year, prompting investors to liquidate positions to secure profits.
Leverage reduction: With high volatility in the futures and options market, investors are de-risking their portfolios to avoid forced liquidations.
The impact of these outflows is both psychological and structural. Large ETF withdrawals reduce immediate buying pressure and may create temporary price dips, but they also reflect a careful recalibration of portfolios rather than outright market panic.
Market insight: Analysts suggest that sustained outflows from ETFs should be monitored alongside on-chain metrics such as Bitcoin whale movements and exchange reserves, as these combined data points often indicate potential short-term market inflection points.
2️⃣ On-Chain: Vitalik Buterin Sells 21,700 ETH
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has sold 21,700 ETH (~$21.74 million) since February 2, 2026. While large sales by prominent figures often trigger speculation, it is important to analyze the context:
Liquidity needs: High-net-worth holders often liquidate part of their holdings for operational or philanthropic purposes without signaling a loss of confidence in the asset.
Market effect: Short-term, this sale slightly increases ETH supply on exchanges, potentially creating small downward pressure. However, with Ethereum’s total circulating supply exceeding 120 million ETH, the impact on long-term fundamentals is minimal.
Investor psychology: Markets tend to react more to perception than scale. Traders should distinguish between strategic liquidity sales and distress selling, the latter of which has a much stronger market impact.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum remains above key support levels near $1,800–$1,850, with immediate resistance around $1,950–$2,000. If ETH can stabilize above support, it may continue its medium-term recovery trend.
3️⃣ Global Developments: Trump Team Considers Gaza Stablecoin
In a surprising global development, reports indicate that Donald Trump’s team is exploring a “Gaza stablecoin” for digital payments. While details remain sparse, the implications could be significant:
Regional crypto adoption: A stablecoin tied to Gaza or the broader region could facilitate cross-border payments in areas with limited access to traditional banking.
Geopolitical strategy: Digital currencies may be leveraged for economic influence, humanitarian aid distribution, or sanctions evasion.
Market perception: Speculation about politically backed stablecoins often causes temporary volatility in both crypto and fiat markets.
From an investment standpoint, the potential introduction of a politically-linked stablecoin underscores the importance of monitoring geopolitical factors in crypto strategy. Traders may consider adjusting positions in BTC, stablecoins, and regional digital assets depending on developments.
4️⃣ Geopolitics: Trump Prefers Deal Over War with Iran
The ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions have dominated market sentiment for weeks. Trump signaled a preference for negotiation and diplomacy over military action, which has briefly eased risk-off sentiment across markets:
Crypto markets: Bitcoin and other risk assets responded positively, with modest rebounds in intraday trading.
Equities: U.S. stock futures improved slightly as fears of escalation subsided.
Macro sentiment: Global investors continue to monitor oil markets, defense sector stocks, and regional trade flows for the broader impact.
However, it is critical to recognize that even a temporary easing does not eliminate risk. Markets remain highly sensitive to political statements, and sudden shifts could trigger renewed volatility. Traders should maintain stop-losses and liquidity buffers to manage potential shocks.
5️⃣ Macro: Potential New U.S. National Security Tariffs
The U.S. administration is reportedly considering national security tariffs on six key industries, including technology, energy, and defense sectors. This announcement carries immediate and medium-term implications:
Equities impact: Companies reliant on imports or exports may face margin pressure, potentially leading to declines in index performance.
Crypto correlation: As Bitcoin and other digital assets increasingly correlate with risk-on equities, prolonged tariff-related market weakness could influence BTC and ETH sentiment.
Inflation effects: Tariffs often raise the cost of imported goods, feeding into inflationary pressures that could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Market participants should watch sector-specific ETFs and futures to gauge broader financial stress. Historically, tariff announcements trigger volatility spikes that last several days to weeks, providing both opportunities and risks for short-term traders.
Market Summary and Analysis
Taking all five points together, the current market environment reflects a convergence of macro, geopolitical, and on-chain factors:
Capital outflows and ETF withdrawals indicate investor caution, reducing immediate buying pressure.
On-chain sales by prominent figures, such as Vitalik, create minor supply-side effects but are not inherently bearish.
Global policy moves, including the potential Gaza stablecoin and tariffs, underscore that crypto markets are increasingly sensitive to geopolitics.
Easing of U.S.–Iran tensions provides temporary relief but should be treated as short-term rather than a reversal signal.
Macro uncertainty from tariffs, inflation, and monetary policy ensures that risk assets, including Bitcoin, remain volatile and trendless in the short term.
Trading Considerations
Support levels: $60,000 remains critical for BTC; ETH support is near $1,800.
Resistance levels: BTC immediate resistance at $65,500–$66,000; ETH at $1,950–$2,000.
Volatility: Expect ±$2,500 to ±$3,000 swings in BTC; ETH may fluctuate ±$50–$70 daily.
Positioning: Avoid over-leveraged trades; maintain liquidity and follow disciplined entry/exit strategies.
Monitoring: Watch geopolitical news, tariff announcements, and institutional flows for near-term market cues.
Conclusion
February 24, 2026, highlights a complex market environment where macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical maneuvering, and on-chain activity intersect.
Bitcoin remains in a fragile consolidation zone between $60,000–$66,000.
Ethereum is testing support while handling minor on-chain supply shocks.
Global digital currency initiatives and potential tariffs indicate markets will continue reacting to policy-driven headlines.
Traders and investors must navigate this environment with strategic caution, clear support/resistance planning, and awareness of macro drivers. Those who maintain discipline and monitor risk closely are likely to emerge best positioned in the current volatile landscape.
Gate Square remains committed to providing actionable daily insights that combine macro analysis, crypto on-chain data, and global market developments for informed decision-making.