📈 Kalshi: A Valid Alternative for Predicting Macroeconomic Variables

🔔 A recent Federal Reserve paper titled “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets” evaluated the accuracy of #prediction markets in relation to macroeconomic indicators like inflation and interest rates. The #study concluded that Kalshi, as a regulated platform, offers a more reliable benchmark for these figures compared to traditional methods such as surveys and forecasts. 📊 The report highlighted that Kalshi provides a real-time snapshot of market movements around macroeconomic numbers, responding quickly to news events. It stated that these markets provide unique insights, particularly for variables like GDP growth, core inflation, unemployment, and payrolls, for which no other market-based distributions currently exist. This positions Kalshi as a valuable tool for measuring market sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty. 📈 Furthermore, the paper emphasized that as #prediction markets mature and liquidity increases, their potential to enhance real-time policy analysis and academic #research will grow. It stated that as these markets mature and liquidity deepens, their potential to enhance real-time policy analysis and academic #research will only grow over time. #crypto