The Numbers Behind Palantir's 5-Year Trajectory

When Palantir Technologies launched its public debut through a direct listing on September 30, 2020, few could have predicted the numbers that would follow. Starting at $10 per share, the AI-powered data analytics company has seen its stock climb to nearly $150, representing a staggering 1,400% return. These numbers tell a compelling story about momentum, growth, and the challenge of sustaining investor expectations. But what do the actual figures reveal about the next 5 years?

Five Key Metrics Shaping Palantir’s Growth

The numbers that matter most start with revenue. From 2020 to 2024, Palantir’s top line expanded at a 27% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). More impressively, the company crossed into profitability during 2023, with net income more than doubling throughout 2024. These numbers represent a fundamental shift from a high-growth, money-losing company to one generating real earnings.

The company operates through two distinct platforms, each with its own numbers trajectory. Gotham serves U.S. government agencies planning missions and operations, while Foundry targets commercial enterprises like Apple and Walmart seeking to unlock data-driven decision-making. Gotham’s numbers have strengthened due to rising government demand amid geopolitical tensions, while Foundry’s metrics show accelerating adoption among American commercial customers.

The Growth Numbers Analysts Expect

Looking forward, the analyst consensus provides specific numbers worth examining. From 2024 through 2027, Palantir’s revenue is projected to grow at a 45% CAGR, while earnings per share (EPS) could expand at an 84% CAGR. These numbers represent a significant acceleration from the past 5 years and reflect expectations for AI market penetration across government sectors and industries worldwide.

One number that stands out is the “Rule of 40” ratio—calculated by adding revenue growth rate plus adjusted operating margin. Palantir’s most recent quarter saw this metric hit triple digits, a remarkable number that typically indicates exceptional business quality. As economies of scale take hold and pricing power improves, these numbers could continue climbing.

Breaking Down the Valuation Numbers

However, the current numbers tell a cautionary tale. Palantir trades at 186 times forward earnings—a number that indicates substantial growth expectations are already baked into the share price. This valuation number creates a high bar for future performance.

If the company achieves analyst projections and gradually moderates its valuation multiple to 50 times forward earnings over the next 5 years while maintaining a 40% EPS CAGR post-2027, the numbers suggest potential 50% upside to approximately $225 per share. While less dramatic than the past 5 years, these numbers would still outpace the S&P 500’s historical 10% annual return—though such outcomes depend on execution against lofty targets.

The Bottom Line on These Numbers

The numbers reveal a company at an inflection point. Palantir demonstrates genuine operational progress with accelerating revenue and expanding profitability. Yet the current valuation numbers leave little room for disappointment. Over the next 5 years, success hinges on whether actual results match—or exceed—the impressive numbers already priced into shares. Investors should carefully weigh whether these numbers, and the execution required to justify them, fit their investment thesis.