NewtekOne (NEWT) Delivers On Earnings Guidance But Faces Revenue Headwinds

NewtekOne’s most recent quarterly results struck a mixed chord with investors. The financial services provider reported earnings per share of $0.65 for the quarter that ended in December 2025, precisely matching what analysts had anticipated. This performance comes against a softer comparison to the prior year’s $0.69 EPS, suggesting a year-over-year decline in profitability.

Over the past year, NEWT has demonstrated inconsistent earnings execution. The company surpassed consensus estimates on three of its last four quarterly reports, though this consistency breakdown is notable. In the previous quarter, management guided for $0.63 per share but delivered $0.67—a positive surprise of 6.35%—which temporarily buoyed investor sentiment. However, this quarter’s match to estimates, combined with revenue miss, may temper expectations heading forward.

Revenue Performance and Profitability Gaps

The most concerning aspect of NEWT’s latest earnings came on the top line. NewtekOne generated $73.33 million in quarterly revenues, falling short of the Zacks consensus projection by 9.45%. For context, this marks a decline from the prior year’s $75.37 million in revenues, indicating a challenging operating environment.

The revenue miss is particularly significant because NewtekOne has struggled to beat consensus revenue forecasts consistently—managing to exceed expectations just once over the trailing four-quarter period. This pattern suggests the market may have overestimated the company’s ability to expand its customer base and pricing power within the small-to-medium business lending space.

Going forward, management guidance projects $77.28 million in quarterly revenues and $331.56 million on an annual basis, with corresponding EPS expectations of $0.48 per quarter and $2.31 for the full fiscal year. These figures will be critical in determining whether NEWT can stabilize its trajectory.

Earnings Estimate Revisions and Stock Sentiment

The stock market’s immediate reaction to NEWT’s quarterly release will hinge significantly on management’s comments during the earnings call and any forward-looking guidance adjustments. Analysts have recently adopted a more cautious stance toward the company, as evidenced by unfavorable earnings estimate revision trends leading up to this report.

These downward revision pressures have resulted in NEWT receiving a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), indicating that the stock is expected to underperform the broader market in the near to intermediate term. This ranking reflects the consensus view that estimated profit growth may continue to face headwinds, warranting a defensive stance for equity investors.

Since the start of 2026, NEWT shares have appreciated approximately 20.4% versus the S&P 500’s more modest 1.9% gain. While this outperformance is noteworthy, the negative estimate revision backdrop suggests the recent rally may be vulnerable to pullbacks if the company cannot demonstrate sequential improvement in revenue trends.

Industry Dynamics and Peer Comparison

Within the Financial - Miscellaneous Services sector, which ranks in the top 39% of Zacks’ 250-plus industries, NewtekOne operates in a space experiencing mixed dynamics. Research demonstrates that top-ranked industries tend to outperform their bottom-tier counterparts by a 2-to-1 margin or greater, providing some sector tailwind.

A comparable name in this space, Coinbase Global (COIN), has yet to release its December 2025 quarterly results, with an announcement expected in mid-February. Coinbase is projected to report earnings of $1.15 per share, representing a 66.1% year-over-year decline. Meanwhile, COIN’s revenue is forecast at $1.85 billion, down 18.8% from the prior year. The consensus EPS estimate for Coinbase has been trimmed by 5.7% over the preceding month, illustrating that earnings estimate pressure extends beyond NewtekOne to other financial services names.

Investor Takeaway for NEWT

The investment case for NEWT remains conditional on whether the company can stabilize its revenue base and reverse the negative earnings revision momentum. While NewtekOne has outpaced the market substantially year-to-date, the lack of revenue growth and mounting analyst skepticism create near-term headwinds. Monitoring upcoming quarterly guidance and estimate revisions will be essential before considering NEWT as a core holding or tactical position.