New Month Soybean Quotes Show Continued Pressure as February Begins

The opening days of February have brought notable selling pressure across soybean futures new month contracts. With prices retreating 6 to 7 cents from late January levels, traders are reassessing positions as multiple headwinds pressure the market. The new month quotes reflect weakening demand signals and building supply concerns that have characterized recent trading sessions.

Fresh Weekly Decline Across Futures Contracts

Soybean futures turned downward to finish out January, with most contracts falling 8 to 10 cents during Friday’s session. This decline extended weakness from earlier in the week, pushing March contracts down 3½ cents on a weekly basis. The new month trading activity showed increased participation, as open interest expanded by 1,392 contracts on Friday, though positioning shifts revealed mixed signals—March saw net selling of 3,705 contracts while May attracted new buying of 3,697 contracts.

The cash market mirrored the futures weakness, with the national average price sliding 7½ cents to $9.98½ per bushel. Soymeal futures experienced steeper losses, ranging from $2.40 to $3.00 lower across the curve, with March contracts down $6.30 over the previous week. Soy Oil futures also registered significant pressure, declining 52 points Friday alone and falling 48 points for the week in the March new month quotes.

Export Commitments Trail Historical Pace

Export momentum has become a critical factor limiting new month price rallies. USDA export sales data released Thursday showed soybean commitments at 33.85 million metric tons as of late January—approximately 20% below the same period last year. This represents just 79% of the USDA’s export forecast, trailing the historical 87% average sales pace. Traders are monitoring upcoming crush data, with expectations for 230.4 million bushels of soybeans processed during December, a figure that could influence new month market sentiment.

Global Crop Conditions Add to Market Pressure

International growing conditions continue weighing on new month quotes as well. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange assessments showed Argentina’s soybean crop rated 47% in good to excellent condition—down 6 percentage points year-over-year but up from just 24% in the comparable week last year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s harvest remains in early stages, with only 10% of the soybean crop harvested as of late January according to AgRural data, suggesting months of supply ahead could pressure prices.

Current New Month Contract Prices

Specific new month quotes at the close of Friday showed March soybean futures settled at $10.64¼, down 8 cents for the day and currently down 6¼ cents. May contracts closed at $10.77, declining 8¾ cents and currently down 6¼ cents on new month trading. July futures finished at $10.90½, down 9¼ cents and also currently down 6¼ cents. The nearby cash price settled at $9.98½, reflecting the 7½-cent decline in the physical market.

Speculative trader positioning data from the CFTC Commitment of Traders report revealed spec funds added 7,261 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options as of late January, bringing their total net long to 17,321 contracts. This positioning adjustment suggests some funds are taking defensive stances in response to the new month quotes weakness while others maintain constructive longer-term views.