Wheat Markets Display Mixed and Fractional Trading Action

Wheat futures are experiencing mixed and fractional price movements as the market navigates conflicting signals from supply and demand data. The complex showed divergent performance across contract types on Monday, with soft wheat holding gains while hard red winter varieties retreated. This mixed fraction pattern reflects ongoing uncertainty in the global wheat market, where export trends and open interest shifts are sending competing signals to traders.

Fractional Price Swings Across Wheat Contracts

The wheat complex opened Tuesday with fractional moves dominating the session. Chicago SRW futures declined 6 to 7 cents in front-month contracts at Monday’s close, while Kansas City HRW futures fell 10 to 11 cents in the front months. Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 5 to 6 cents on the day. Though these moves appear modest on a percentage basis—hence the fractional characterization—they reflect meaningful shifts in market positioning. Open interest data showed mixed signals, with CBOT SRW open interest rising 695 contracts, while KC HRW open interest fell significantly by 7,313 contracts, with the majority of selling concentrated in March contracts.

Mixed Export Signals Challenge the Marketing Year Outlook

Monday’s Export Inspections report revealed a more complicated picture for wheat shipments. The week of January 22 saw 351,001 MT (12.9 mbu) of wheat shipped—a mixed result showing weakness from the previous week (down 11.76%) and a substantial year-over-year decline of 27.56%. However, the marketing year total of 16.33 MMT (600.05 mbu) tells a different story, running 18.21% ahead of the same period last year. South Korea led destinations with 119,036 MT, followed by Japan with 73,230 MT and Mexico with 63,773 MT. This mixed performance—strong year-to-date totals combined with recent weekly softness—underscores the fractional nature of market sentiment.

USDA Data and Current Futures Quotations

USDA Export Sales data from Friday provided additional context, with wheat commitments reaching 21.03 MMT by January 15, representing an 18% year-over-year increase and 86% of the USDA target number—near the 87% average sales pace. Current wheat futures display the mixed and fractional movements characteristic of recent trading:

• Mar 26 CBOT Wheat: Closed at $5.22 1/2, down 7 cents, currently up 1/2 cent
• May 26 CBOT Wheat: Closed at $5.32 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents, currently up 1/2 cent
• Mar 26 KCBT Wheat: Closed at $5.29 3/4, down 11 cents, currently down 1/2 cent
• May 26 KCBT Wheat: Closed at $5.40 1/2, down 10 cents, currently down 1/2 cent
• Mar 26 MIAX Wheat: Closed at $5.70 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents, currently down 3/4 cent
• May 26 MIAX Wheat: Closed at $5.82 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents, currently down 1 cent

These fractional price adjustments, combined with the mixed export trends, suggest a market seeking direction as traders weigh near-term export weakness against year-to-date strength in marketing year totals.