Cattle Market Faces Downward Pressure as Futures Decline Heading Into the Week

The cattle futures complex experienced significant losses this week, with traders navigating volatile price action and mixed supply-demand signals. Live cattle and feeder cattle contracts both retreated, signaling potential weakness in the livestock market heading forward. For those monitoring cattle for sale near me or tracking market trends, this week’s action offers important context on current pricing dynamics and inventory levels.

Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Futures Show Weakness

Live cattle futures traded lower across most contract months on Thursday, with declines ranging from $1.10 to $1.50 per hundredweight. Open interest increased by 820 contracts, suggesting continued market participation despite the sell-off. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction provided bids between $232 and $233.50 per hundredweight on approximately 1,510 head, though no sales materialized at those price levels.

Feeder cattle futures experienced similar pressure, with losses between 72 cents and $1.10 across expiring contracts. January feeder cattle was an exception, gaining $1.07 as that contract approached expiration. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rebounded to $366.69 by late January, up $2.70 from the previous level, providing some indication of underlying support in the feeder cattle segment.

Disease Concerns and Regulatory Developments Impact Cattle Supply

APHIS reported concerning developments in Mexico’s ongoing screwworm situation, with 4 new cases identified in Tamaulipas and 1 new case in San Luis Potosi. This brought total active cases in those Mexican states to 13, a factor that cattle producers and traders continue monitoring given its potential impact on North American cattle supply chains.

The USDA cattle inventory report released this week provided mixed signals for cattle markets. The report showed all cattle and calves down 0.3% year-over-year, while beef cows increased 0.4%, and replacement heifers expanded 1.7% compared to the same period last year. These inventory adjustments reflect ongoing dynamics in the breeding herd and production cycle.

Export Demand Shows Strength Despite Domestic Price Weakness

Export sales data painted a more optimistic picture for cattle-derived beef products. In the week ending January 22, beef exports totaled 16,893 metric tons, marking the largest weekly volume since November. South Korea emerged as the top buyer with 7,600 metric tons, while Japan purchased 4,900 metric tons. Actual beef shipments in that week totaled 12,574 metric tons, with 3,800 metric tons heading to South Korea and 3,600 metric tons to Japan.

Census trade data revealed concerning developments on the import side, with beef exports on a carcass basis reaching only 190.4 million pounds in November—the lowest level since 2009. Beef imports declined 1.2% year-over-year to 151,316 metric tons, suggesting softened international demand or changing trade patterns in the cattle market.

Wholesale Beef Prices and Slaughter Activity Paint Mixed Picture

Wholesale boxed beef prices declined further this week, with the Chicago/Select spread widening to $6.94. Choice boxed beef fell $2.08 to $367.66 per hundredweight, while Select dropped $2.85 to $360.72, reflecting weakness across quality tiers. This pricing dynamic matters for cattle producers evaluating their marketing strategies.

Wednesday’s USDA data showed federally inspected cattle slaughter at 112,000 head, with the weekly total standing at 436,000 head. That represented 11,000 head below the previous week and 47,143 head below the same week in the prior year, indicating a year-over-year decline in processing volume that could support prices longer-term despite current weakness.

Contract Settlements Show Broad-Based Decline

February 2026 Live Cattle futures settled at $235.50, down $1.325, while April 2026 closed at $237.275, down $1.45. June 2026 Live Cattle finished at $233.275, down $1.175. In the feeder cattle complex, January 2026 rallied to $369.175, up $1.075, bucking the broader downward trend. March 2026 Feeder Cattle retreated $0.725 to $365.125, while April 2026 fell $1.075 to $363.225. This contract spread suggests traders are pricing in near-term support for cattle while remaining cautious about sustained recovery.